USD risk

misterkel

misterkel

I'm watching the Greenback hit new lows (against CAD, where I call home).
I'm feeling like Mr. market doesn't take to the incoming admin in terms of USD value and it's acting accordingly. What do people think?
What's your take on best currency at present for keeping your dry powder? I really want to spread some currency risk at this point.
 
You're about six months late to the party. Might as well stick around to see if the Dollar tests late '17/early'18 lows. That level acted as pretty strong support back then.

The real question is if the ECB has any more room for an interest rate cut. I don't know if European consumer and commercial banks could survive it.

misterkel said:
I'm watching the Greenback hit new lows (against CAD, where I call home).
I'm feeling like Mr. market doesn't take to the incoming admin in terms of USD value and it's acting accordingly. What do people think?
What's your take on best currency at present for keeping your dry powder? I really want to spread some currency risk at this point.
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bone said:
The real question is if the ECB has any more room for an interest rate cut. I don't know if European consumer and commercial banks could survive it.
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At some point the market will ignore cuts by the ECB.
 
After looking at 6E and DX a few minutes ago - I would say that time is now at hand. And the problem with going negative 2% as a strategy to weaken the Euro is that they've effectively run out of room.

zdreg said:
At some point the market will ignore cuts by the ECB.
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bone said:
After looking at 6E and DX a few minutes ago - I would say that time is now at hand. And the problem with going negative 2% as a strategy to weaken the Euro is that they've effectively run out of room.
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Competitive devaluations like in the 1930's Depression. Are you saying we are back to beggar thy neighborhood policies of the 1930s? To date, the stock market disagrees.
 
What I'm driving at is that Draghi intentionally took EU rates negative with the intent of devaluing the Euro against the Dollar. And now the ECB is cornered - they go lower and Banks start to fail.

zdreg said:
Competitive devaluations like in the 1930's Depression. Are you saying we are back to beggar thy neighborhood policies of the 1930s? To date, the stock market disagrees.
More...
 
bone said:
What I'm driving at is that Draghi intentionally took EU rates negative with the intent of devaluing the Euro against the Dollar. And now the ECB is cornered - they go lower and Banks start to fail.
More...

Interesting thesis. Do you have a causal explanation and any evidence or case studies to support it?
 
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