Usd/jpy

Chood,

I exited my longs today. I have no signals to go short the YEN, and I feel the that upside trend is still there. I will re-enter longs at .8600 give or take. I still would not short here. You have to admit that the risk being short right now is high.

Good luck to you sir,

Regards
Steve
 
Quote from spersky:

Chood,

I exited my longs today. I have no signals to go short the YEN, and I feel the that upside trend is still there. I will re-enter longs at .8600 give or take. I still would not short here. You have to admit that the risk being short right now is high.

Good luck to you sir,

Regards
Steve
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Naturally, since my shorts have been underwater for two sessions -- by as much as, albeit briefly, 65 ticks from avg. in -- I'd be tickled to see 8600. I don't see YEN support there as you do, of course.
 
Low today was .8609 in march yen. I did not enter long however.

I thought it would go lower. I will enter between .8580 give or take if it ever happens.

chood,

Did you exit any shorts today at the low?
 
No. The risk/reward for exiting my trade at 8609 is 100 ticks risk, 1 tick reward. Not a good proposition

(. . . and only a tiny bit better than the "heads we win, tails you lose" proposition RefcoFX has been making its frozen-withdrawal/trade-if-you-want spot fx customers).
 
Quote from spersky:

. . . I will re-enter longs at .8600 give or take. I still would not short here.

Steve
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You were dead on with this call, which is a couple of ticks above session low today. I see you lowered the proposed entry by 20 ticks in the post following this .008600 call. Nothing wrong with trying to bargain hunt.

For my part, I'll sell again tonight, adding one short to my two existing, if/when early overnight trade pushes near month YEN above .008655, assuming early trade is frothy, lacking conviction (meaning volume). That's what happened early overnight 3 sessions ago when near month hit this week's high. Any stop for the new short would be at .008710, same as existing, because I see 8700 defended.
 
Shorting the yen now. It has a lot of room to fall now that the whole inflation BS is not so bad. Just wait until the euro session and us session open , the chain reaction should be nice.

Nice call chood :)
 
Near-month YEN falls to .008520 at 8 am my time today, putting my three YEN shorts in the money 315 ticks, after suffering max drawdown of 136 ticks early last week.

The avg-in entry for the three improved to .008625 due to the one short added last session early overnight at .008655, which was just under session high. Today's 8 am profit is 2.32 times greater than max drawdown. And waiting for more.

Anybody see Kathy Lien’s prediction last week at FXCM of a pending, big move of USD/YEN down to 110.00? Her mini-account audience likely jumped on it. For my YEN shorts (which are dollar longs), I couldn’t ask for a better confirming fade.

(Yes, for chuckles, I sometimes surf the websites of fx retailers like FXCM and Saxo. Their hype reads like a true crime paperback -- criminality laced by fantasy.)

From last Tuesday and Thursday

Quote from Chood:

I agree, so much so that I'm shorting (this session) the near month YEN future, expecting it to trade to or below .008500 this week or next. Shorting next month YEN (June) is even better in my view, because I believe Fed will go higher than two quarters to five. My shorts may suffer some roiling before that recognition takes hold in the market, when/if it does. So, I'll place stops no closer than 100 ticks away, or .008710 on average for near month shorts.

Basic premise and prediction: by June, USD will reach and breach its December '05 high, with spot climbing above, say, 1.23.

* * * *

For my part, I'll sell again tonight, adding one short to my two existing, if/when early overnight trade pushes near month YEN above .008655, assuming early trade is frothy, lacking conviction (meaning volume). That's what happened early overnight 3 sessions ago when near month hit this week's high. Any stop for the new short would be at .008710, same as existing, because I see 8700 defended.
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