USD/JPY to the Moon

[TVIS]

And which way is that?

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[kroxobor]

I'm not your fundamental guy, but if BOJ were to increase the interest rate, the yen would (or should) rise and the dollar would fall. And that should theoretically drive the Nikkei higher. BTW USD/JPY and SPX usually move in tandem.

Yes, if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) were to increase interest rates, the Japanese yen would likely rise as higher rates attract foreign investment. This could lead to a stronger yen and potentially cause the USD/JPY pair to fall. In theory, a stronger yen could support higher stock prices in Japan, such as the Nikkei, while the USD/JPY and SPX moving in tandem is often due to their correlation with global risk sentiment.

 

[Erebus]

Yes, if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) were to increase interest rates, the Japanese yen would likely rise as higher rates attract foreign investment. This could lead to a stronger yen and potentially cause the USD/JPY pair to fall. In theory, a stronger yen could support higher stock prices in Japan, such as the Nikkei, while the USD/JPY and SPX moving in tandem is often due to their correlation with global risk sentiment.

Let's be clear, when discussing interest rates and the BoJ, you simply must defer to the DIFFERENTIAL. Now, that a big word, please Google if you don't understand.

To be clear, a rise of 0.10% does nothing to change the dynamics of the aforementioned Differential, which is the fundamental reason that Forex moves.

 

[SunTrader]

Yes, if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) were to increase interest rates, the Japanese yen would likely rise as higher rates attract foreign investment. This could lead to a stronger yen and potentially cause the USD/JPY pair to fall. In theory, a stronger yen could support higher stock prices in Japan, such as the Nikkei, while the USD/JPY and SPX moving in tandem is often due to their correlation with global risk sentiment.

Weaker yen supports (increased exports) higher Japanese stock prices. See Indexes past 10 years or so.

Weaker/stronger is always in reference to another currency - why they are called pairs. If BOJ raises/lowers but so does another CB it basically cancels out.

If BOJ moves rates 25 basis points higher might put a scare in some weak shorts for a day or two. Its kinda obvious they won't do anything too dramatic.

 

[schizo]

That's right, we ain't going higher. Okay, fine, I don't know what OB means. But I have a "good feeling" that we're going down to the lower trendline (prolly 150-ish or slighly lower).

WEEKLY
View attachment 343917

Posted with the above comment on 07/12

And today. That lower trendline don't look that far off, does it? (Still hopeful it will turn around here??)

 

[kroxobor]

Nice technical charts but USDJPY breaks the rules setting higher highs basically every month, we have to see some really dovish turn of the Fed for this trend to reverse.

 

[SunTrader]

Nice technical charts but USDJPY breaks the rules setting higher highs basically every month, we have to see some really dovish turn of the Fed for this trend to reverse.

Yes, if one only looks at the monthly trend. I'm guessing most traders, especially retail ones, don't trade based off the monthly chart.

Daily trend is clearly down. And right now weekly is down as well but Friday's close is what determines whether that will still be the case or not. Odds are pretty much in favor of the bearish side, to say the least:-

 

[engineering]

Nice technical charts but USDJPY breaks the rules setting higher highs basically every month, we have to see some really dovish turn of the Fed for this trend to reverse.

JCB interest rate is really the issue. As long as they hold their rates several percent lower than US their currency will devalue.

It's almost a law of nature.

Think about it. If someone wanted to sell you a zero percent Japanese govt bond, how would you calculate what you'd be willing to pay?

 

[SunTrader]

JCB interest rate is really the issue. As long as they hold their rates several percent lower than US their currency will devalue.

It's almost a law of nature.

Think about it. If someone wanted to sell you a zero percent Japanese govt bond, how would you calculate what you'd be willing to pay?

except yen has appreciated 5.36% against the dollar since July 10th - without any rate change (so far).

 

[schizo]

Yes, if one only looks at the monthly trend. I'm guessing most traders, especially retail ones, don't trade based off the monthly chart.

Very well stated. But I'm sure they'll do just fine with their monthly chart. And congratz if you've been shorting this baby from the top.

For the time being, we're inching ever more closer to that bottom channel.