USD/JPY to the Moon

[SunTrader]

I think the reason Nikkei went up is more to do with global inflation than currency depreciation. If you believe "a country's currency drops, index (usually) rises", why did USD and SPX both went up in the last 2 years? SPX should have dropped. We're just in a period of anomaly due to COVID. Just my useless 2-cents.

Anyway, USD/JPY ain't going any higher. And if there's BOJ intervention, I hope you know what to do.

View attachment 343060

Dollar being the world's reserve currency is for the most part the exception.

Look at Euro and Dax. And many others besides Yen and Nikkei/Topix that are export driven.

As for UJ going higher or not I'll let the market tell me. Ain't going higher/lower (will, always, never etc) are not in my vocabulary.

 

[nitrene]

My limited knowledge of Japan's debt sustainability issues leads me to believe that unless there is egregious inflation the BOJ won't raise if they can avoid it due to debt issuances yet to be done.

I bet the Yen will go a lot higher probably 200+ by next year. The Yen is already up 13% this year. Sooner or later they are going to have serious problems importing Oil & other external commodities.

 

[SunTrader]

My limited knowledge of Japan's debt sustainability issues leads me to believe that unless there is egregious inflation the BOJ won't raise if they can avoid it due to debt issuances yet to be done.

I bet the Yen will go a lot higher probably 200+ by next year. The Yen is already up 13% this year. Sooner or later they are going to have serious problems importing Oil & other external commodities.

Could be getting close to a pullback but uptrend not likely to be ending anytime soon.

 

[SunTrader]

Could be getting close to a pullback but uptrend not likely to be ending anytime soon.

Moved higher, had pullback. Now will support hold?:-

 

[JamBoy]

Buy 6JU4 (futs) market
Buy Limit 0.00624
Sell Stop all 0.00623

Various targets, with a final target 0.00777 (with rolls) to start to flip short (i.e. long USDJPY)

 

[SunTrader]

(SEMAFOR)

What We’re Tracking


Tokyo drift: Japan’s giant government pension fund may move tens of billions of dollars from foreign stocks and bonds into domestic ones in an effort to prop up an ailing yen. The $1.5 trillion fund went abroad in the 2010s in search of returns it couldn’t get at home, but is expected to reverse course as its leaders start their quinquennial strategy review. Its $800 billion stash of foreign investments is a sort of break-in-case-of-emergency fund and “that moment is now,” one analyst told the Wall Street Journal, as the yen hits its weakest level since the 1980s.

 

[Erebus]

Look at Euro and Dax. And many others besides Yen and Nikkei/Topix that are export driven.

As for UJ going higher or not I'll let the market tell me. Ain't going higher/lower (will, always, never etc) are not in my vocabulary.

So, you are like the BoJ, the interest differential doesn't mean anything?

 

[SunTrader]

So, you are like the BoJ, the interest differential doesn't mean anything?

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Yes. I am like the BOJ, if they are only watching FX rates (doubt they only look at them and nothing else) - which is all that really matters, to me at least.

Do you trade yields or their spreads? I don't.

 

[schizo]

What did I tell ya??

 

[Erebus]

Obviously, the market doesn't care what the BoJ looks at, the fundamentals remain.

Now, they made a surprise attack, but how long can even a central bank control the market; let's see, the last recent 2 or 3 times, not long.

If we did something fishy, we would get locked up, go figure.

qui vivra verra