USD/JPY showing strong signals...

R

rednephilim

I posted this up on the FOREX boards but it's just as applicable here,

There are three convergences of the Fast Stochastic Oscillator above the 80% line suggesting a heavily overbought condition. The falling trendline (prevailing for a few YEARS now) is offering strong resistance and the price seems to have just bounced off it with a Bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. I am loking for a good entry point to short here.

Do I hear any TA acolytes agreeing with me on this one, or can someone tell me why I've got it wrong?
 

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Fed has increased rates 7 times, US$ follows the rates by one year lag, so any signs of weakness should be buying opportunity. Please also look into what is US$ doing via-a-vis Canadian, BP and Euro. I see Head and Shoulders bottom on your chart, give it a time to break out and if that fails then only think of shorting. There was a symmitrical triangle break out in mid Feb which found support in early April around 104....tone seems set for 113 soon. I would not short here.
 
Sounds like good advice.

I shorted before you posted this and the dollar has risen against the yen, but I'm trying to trade out of the position now to minimise a loss.

My first real trade for money! I want to get it "right" as much for my confidence as the cash. Perhaps it will be a valuable lesson.
 
Traded out at my etry point (107.69) and broke even (including spread). Check it this morning and although it did continue to drop to 107.50.
 
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