USD/JPY... in its own world?

Quote from Martinghoul:

Well, it's not like GBP has a sterling reputation these days. :)

At any rate, I used today as an opportunity to get into a couple of positive carry, "risk-on" trades (GBPJPY being one of them, with an added 'Japan fiscal disaster' bonus). Hedged with a wee bit of a DXY long.
More...

You are long the Japan disaster bonus? :) Why the change in sentiment ? :)
I'm with ya, but have a feeling this may take a few years.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

You are long the Japan disaster bonus? :) Why the change in sentiment ? :)
I'm with ya, but have a feeling this may take a few years.
More...

How do you guys stay solvent in a trade of that length? The swings must be huge. Or are you not in a single position? Do you in and out, but with a short Yen bias?
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

You are long the Japan disaster bonus? :) Why the change in sentiment ? :)
I'm with ya, but have a feeling this may take a few years.
More...
Well, it's a positive carry, "risk-on" trade, as I mentioned, and I also think yen is overvalued. The Japan disaster scenario is just an outstrike. I agree that it's not likely to happen soon. However, I am effectively getting paid to be long this option, so I am happy to run it.

AyeYo, it's a small portfolio I have, so I have other trades that hedge the 'beta', so to speak...
 
There's also speculation that China will revise (raise) the yuan under pressure from the US and Europe. Since JPY is considered proxy for the yuan, it's bid up.
If China refuses to buckle under pressure, we may see the yen dropping again as the specs cover their positions.
 
big time short squeeze on the yen. a LOT of people short the yen basis their "impending fiscal doom" so what does the market do? of course it'll do the opposite of what everyone knows...
 
Quote from pqt:

There's also speculation that China will revise (raise) the yuan under pressure from the US and Europe. Since JPY is considered proxy for the yuan, it's bid up.
If China refuses to buckle under pressure, we may see the yen dropping again as the specs cover their positions.
More...

why would china increase the value of the yuan? the peg works great

the peg allows china to keep giving the US cash at a decent positive return.

Increasing the value of the yuan and then the lending becomes, lets say, not so attractive ... possibly to the point where china dumps US treasuries, and then where would the US be? Will India or Brazil or Russia pick up the slack?

I guess we can blame Barrack Hussein the Insane Obama if everything falls apart huh? :p

>>> please correct me if I am wrong (I have been trading for 20 hours now) :D
 
Other USD pairs have long-term established macro trend(weak dollar) which continues. In the case of the yen, the widespread dissemination of its impending fall has only been very recent. Hence the effectiveness of the short squeeze.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top