Referendum in Italy tomorrow.
I don't think it will have much impact on EURUSD since Italy isn't a dominant nation but EURUSD may appreciate until there is an actual change in interest rate in US dollar.
Are u kidding? If another major member was to exit it could send Euro into downward spiral, as it could signal the breakup of EU.
It has more to do with the Italian bonds-- their ability to borrow. The Italian banks are already shaky. Markets generally don't like instability, nor do most who would invest in a business. It's all about having faith in what seems to be a patched together system. The Trader in me says sell political and economic instability and ask questions later.