Did take a few shorts against USD this morning, successfully. Now everything has retraced. GBP is in a really interesting spot right here IMO. Took something out of it but I could make a case for it already having bottomed or close to it. Or maybe it's just the Euro being so weak that the crosses are coming into play. Watch out for the change up that looks like a fastball. You'll swing three times before the ball gets to the plate.
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https://www.gregmckenna.com.au/mark...bability-marine-le-pen-will-french-president/
Hugh Hendry is betting on an EU breakup and a ‘very high’ probability Marine Le Pen will be French president
November 16, 2016 Greg McKenna Markets
If you want a strong view on the global economy and markets right now, look no further than Hugh Hendry, founder and chief investment officer of the $200 million Eclectica hedge fund.
Hendry told the Reuters Global Investment Summit overnight that his fund is betting on the break-up of the EU in a trade he says could deliver 30-35% returns to his fund.
The reason he’s taken the bet is that Hendry believes National Front leader Marine Le Pen has a “very high” probability of becoming French president at next year’s election.
Le Pen herself said after the US presidential election win of Donald Trump that his victory “made possible what had previously been presented as impossible”.
Hendry also noted that Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders is doing well. These political trends could lead to the break-up of the EU.
“The biggest risk to the global economy is the acute and impending political crisis in Europe, which monetary policy does not have the tools to resolve” he said.
Hendry told the audience that the analogue for the break up of the EU is Britain’s withdrawal from the gold standard in 1931.
Read more …
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About the Author
Greg McKenna
Greg is a trader, behavioural finance/economics guy and technical analyst. His trading methodology is based on a combination of these factors, more than 25 years experience of profitable trading and simple common sense money management and trade execution techniques.
Hugh Hendry is betting on an EU breakup and a ‘very high’ probability Marine Le Pen will be French president
November 16, 2016 Greg McKenna Markets
If you want a strong view on the global economy and markets right now, look no further than Hugh Hendry, founder and chief investment officer of the $200 million Eclectica hedge fund.
Hendry told the Reuters Global Investment Summit overnight that his fund is betting on the break-up of the EU in a trade he says could deliver 30-35% returns to his fund.
The reason he’s taken the bet is that Hendry believes National Front leader Marine Le Pen has a “very high” probability of becoming French president at next year’s election.
Le Pen herself said after the US presidential election win of Donald Trump that his victory “made possible what had previously been presented as impossible”.
Hendry also noted that Dutch far-right politician Geert Wilders is doing well. These political trends could lead to the break-up of the EU.
“The biggest risk to the global economy is the acute and impending political crisis in Europe, which monetary policy does not have the tools to resolve” he said.
Hendry told the audience that the analogue for the break up of the EU is Britain’s withdrawal from the gold standard in 1931.
Read more …
Get Greg’s overnight wrap of all the moves and his outlook for the day, 6 things traders will be talking about, and his daily look at the Australian dollar and where it’s headed.
Subscribe here …
About the Author
Greg McKenna
Greg is a trader, behavioural finance/economics guy and technical analyst. His trading methodology is based on a combination of these factors, more than 25 years experience of profitable trading and simple common sense money management and trade execution techniques.
March 2015 low coming up for EURUSD