USD index

Sometimes I just think, "Well, maybe I am the crowd (everyone is saying not to be a part of)". And I'm ok with that. Haha. Everyone thinks the crowd is over there somewhere. Maybe it's here, closer than you think.
 
Cswim63 said:
Just reading Joni Mitchell's lyrics to the song "Both Sides Now." I guess one of the ideas to the song came from Star Trek, the episode where Spock gets emotions and falls in love. Anyway my mentor, who was surrounded by information, used to always tell me that "We don't really know very much." I never believed him till now, perhaps. You can lay on your back and look at clouds and see anything in them you want to. Then they rain and snow and ruin everything. The same goes for the market. You can see on ET that everyone trades the market that's in their head, and it's difficult to get outside of that. But it can be done. You want free--form experience, not polluted by your beliefs. The minute we think we know something, it can trap us.
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Yeah, that's why I personally like to trade an expectation with defined set ups...
 
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Speaking of thinking we know something, the market seems to be operating counter trend, more like buy weakness sell strength. Except i have a hard time establishing where it's going to bounce from. Anyway I think I can at least say it's not trending on the longer TFs. Think trading range till proven otherwise.
 
It just seems like a market where a lot of the volume has left, but still searching for value. That means spikes, which is what we have now.
 
I notice that Great Britain had some poor economic news today. Seems to me the numbers were pretty far off forecast. Everyone is watching the Euro this week because of ECB, I'm looking at the bigger picture like Italy's notes blowing out in yield last week. It's not full blown panic yet. In a separate but related area, there was an article on cnbc yesterday about how the Fed has to be careful about tightening too much, because the money market is already showing signs of strain. I think the article suggested that they were a little surprised how quickly liquidity dried up. More straws in the wind.
 
Cswim63 said:
I know that I have to follow some crowd somewhere sometimes. Hopefully it's the right one. I also gave up trying to understand what really drives the market. I wonder how anyone can think they have this knowledge, and where it comes from. It's all just a probability that exists in this moment. Or not.
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Crowd is wrong not because it took the wrong direction but because of they are too late. They make profits for those who wake up earlier, and spotted the trend (or reversal) when the crowd used outdated information to make decisions. It's all about getting meaningful market information before majority became aware it really matters
 
pipeguy said:
Crowd is wrong not because it took the wrong direction but because of they are too late. They make profits for those who wake up earlier, and spotted the trend (or reversal) when the crowd used outdated information to make decisions. It's all about getting meaningful market information before majority became aware it really matters
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That's great. Care to share a current example?
 
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