USD Index to bottom around 90 ?

W

Wallace

I no longer trade or analyze the currencies, just update the charts once a week.

I'd been wondering why there was repeated talk of the 'falling Dollar', my charts
didn't seem to indicate much 'falling'.

After the Friday Close I was changing charts' contract month from Sep to Dec and
discovered my DX charts were still on the JUNE contract . . .

The result of the 'discovery' was to see if I could determine a possible bottom —
the 90 area.
 
I will look a EUR/USD 122 as a difficult area to get through and we are about there.
Will be looking for a fails attempt at ths area.
Tis pair has been trending strong since July. You no see?
 
Took me several stabs to find the highs, so all I can do now is add to my short position. I am very long term Commodity trader and will stay sometimes several years till completed, so I can't even think of buying till around 77-78 area. I exchanged third of currency account into Euro-currency from USD in late 2015 and trade Eurex instruments to boot in that account, have done so with 2 other currencies as well. An easy way to get money working without paying fees all the time, LOL.
 
Hi eurusdzn.

The EUR/USD began this rally back in Dec last year, coinciding with the beginning of
the increase of the Effective Federal Funds Fate - EFFR, and the Target Rate/Range.

The next FOMC Meeting is Sep 19-20 , and 'associated with a Summary of Economic
Projections and a press conference by the Chair.'
There are 2 more meetings after that - Oct then Dec, so time enough for a rate increase.

There's a band of eyeballed S/R for the EUR/USD between 1.1665 and 1.25-1.265 .
A Retracement Fibo at about 1.2174 , then the next fibos at about 1.239 and 1.26 and
the top of the eyeballed S/R range.

If the Fed do not raise the FFR at this meeting, there is the
' p o s s i b i l i t y '
that the Euro will continue to rise.
 
Hi Handle123 .

Looking at various lines, I'll make a revised target of around 88.40 , presuming the Fed do
nothing till the Dec meeting, when they ' Will ' , , , raise the FFR.

What I can't see is the Dollar dropping to 77-78 . . .
what on earth would be happening to the World economy to cause that kind of drop ?
 
Wallace said:
I no longer trade or analyze the currencies, just update the charts once a week.

I'd been wondering why there was repeated talk of the 'falling Dollar', my charts
didn't seem to indicate much 'falling'.

After the Friday Close I was changing charts' contract month from Sep to Dec and
discovered my DX charts were still on the JUNE contract . . .

The result of the 'discovery' was to see if I could determine a possible bottom —
the 90 area.
More...
Dollar is in bear market. So be ready to short it.
Anyway, on a short term basis, DXY is already oversold.
Mean reversion / dead cat bounce is coming.
If 91 holds, we can see at least 92.50, maybe 96, max 100/101.
Graph :
upload_2017-9-11_11-45-2.png


CM
 
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