USD/CHF shorting any thoughts? 10/6

J

jrlvnv

Shorted the pair at 10:55pm pst at 1.0288. Stop is at 1.0330 and target is 1.0206.

What do you guys think about the trade?
 
well the purpose of me posting is to help me get better. Do you mind explaining why its a bad move?

My entry was based on a 50% pull back on the 15 min chart mixed in the daily being in a downtrend. I really don't mind losing money since that is pretty much all I do but I am trying my best to find good trades and learn why they aren't so maybe I could learn from my mistakes
 
Quote from jrlvnv:

well the purpose of me posting is to help me get better. Do you mind explaining why its a bad move?

My entry was based on a 50% pull back on the 15 min chart mixed in the daily being in a downtrend. I really don't mind losing money since that is pretty much all I do but I am trying my best to find good trades and learn why they aren't so maybe I could learn from my mistakes
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I wouldn't short the USD/CHF knowing that there maybe intervention, especially because it's very low on the weekly charts. A break above 1.034 would solicit buying. I would try to short very close to <1.034 with stops above @ 1.0360
 
Quote from sakhter:

I wouldn't short the USD/CHF knowing that there maybe intervention, especially because it's very low on the weekly charts. A break above 1.034 would solicit buying. I would try to short very close to <1.034 with stops above @ 1.0360
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I do not understand when you say that there maybe intervention. Do you mind explaining it a bit further for me?
 
Quote from jrlvnv:

Oh, I was thinking something totally else like a level of buying LOL. Thanks for the link
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No problem. Just watch out for the spikes!
 
Quote from sakhter:

I wouldn't short the USD/CHF knowing that there maybe intervention, especially because it's very low on the weekly charts. A break above 1.034 would solicit buying. I would try to short very close to <1.034 with stops above @ 1.0360
More...

Intervention hasn't been an effective deterrent in the currency market for years. To make it somewhat of a dent, you would need a coordinated effort by all the major central banks and as of now, they can't agree on anything. Plus, the market has grown so large that throwing a few billion at a 3T market will barely make a dent. The only thing that will impede or move something here is a change of or threat of a change in interest rates and yield. And that's not happening.
 
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