USA! USA! USA! Winning the coronavirus race

[HobbyTrading]

I agree that you can't use an apples to apples, but this is as best as we have. We certainly shouldn't be using a chart as was posted in the OP! If the narrative being pushed (by the OP) is that the US is "winning the case count war" then that's horseshit. And it needs to be called out as horseshit.

I agree with you that is not correct to compare absolute patient numbers per country. Each country has a different population size, and each country has a different approach to how they measure infected patients.
On the other hand: I like this chart a lot from the perspective of the trajectory: the rate of change in each country since the onset in that country. The diagonal dotted lines are very helpful to see things in perspective. And, for the countries who are further ahead in time (China, Korea), you can see when the spread starts to level off.
So I don't call this chart BS, but you do need to be aware what you can, and what you cannot, conclude from it.

 

[Sprout]

How many places are you going to post this?

I was just gonna post it once but saw another relevant thread, then thought, ah sh1t, this should probably have it’s own thread and not get buried. It’s contextually relevant but yeah I might have cross posted too much. It’s factual data, not opinion nor speculation. Mods can delete as they see fit.

We are in historic times.

 

[d08]

View attachment 223056

All fine by Easter. Beautiful!

While it's cool, it looks at absolute numbers which is close to worthless. Per capita is relevant.

 

[Cuddles]

I agree with you that is not correct to compare absolute patient numbers per country. Each country has a different population size, and each country has a different approach to how they measure infected patients.
On the other hand: I like this chart a lot from the perspective of the trajectory: the rate of change in each country since the onset in that country. The diagonal dotted lines are very helpful to see things in perspective. And, for the countries who are further ahead in time (China, Korea), you can see when the spread starts to level off.
So I don't call this chart BS, but you do need to be aware what you can, and what you cannot, conclude from it.

I was just gonna post it once but saw another relevant thread, then thought, ah sh1t, this should probably have it’s own thread and not get buried. It’s contextually relevant but yeah I might have cross posted too much. It’s factual data, not opinion nor speculation. Mods can delete as they see fit.

We are in historic times.

While it's cool, it looks at absolute numbers which is close to worthless. Per capita is relevant.

The ones comparing countries to US States are a bit more accurate from a pop. Density point of view. They're still pretty grim for hotspots States. I think all States with decent population size are hotspots with a delay tbh....

 

[monet]

I agree that you can't use an apples to apples, but this is as best as we have. We certainly shouldn't be using a chart as was posted in the OP! If the narrative being pushed (by the OP) is that the US is "winning the case count war" then that's horseshit. And it needs to be called out as horseshit.

Also have to consider the testing approach. Here in the states we are just beginning mass testing. Obviously that will do two big things - increase case count massively and reduce mortality rate massively.

As i type this I'm on a call with our PE owners and they're telling us this will end up with a mortality rate somewhere right around the flu. And they are a lot smarter than most people on this forum - and have access to pragmatic smart folks as well.

Your points are reasonable. However, we can compare trajectories. Then the only criticism is data accuracy due to testing practices and level of openness.

The accuracy of data on deaths (rather than cases) is likely to be better. We will see how this changes over time. The maximum value on the vertical scale on these charts will need to be modified to 100,000 in the coming weeks:

 

[Evermore2017]

Number of cases is not relevant, the more important is the mortality rate, now is 1.5% in US and this number is not too bad, others countries data is not accurate.

 

[d08]

Number of cases is not relevant, the more important is the mortality rate, now is 1.5% in US and this number is not too bad, others countries data is not accurate.

US data isn't accurate either. Not everyone can get tested for free whenever they want in US. Best data is from South Korea and Iceland.

 

[Vindago]

Hi All, I am from Italy and maybe I have a more direct perception of what is happening here and will happen elsewhere with one or two weeks delay: the growth of the number of infected people and of hospitalized and deaths has been exponential until after more than 2 weeks of lock-down. It is now beginning to show shy signs of slowing but it still grows too fast to be manageable.

What is not easy to understand is that the problem is not the death rate in itself but the saturation of health care system.
For instance a hospital designed to manage 50 ICU at the same time now receive 20 new patients each day that need ICU which means that people will die simply because there are no ICU units and personnel enough for all, so far we have somehow managed thanks to heroic disposition of health care personnel, but it will not be enough. And we are talking about Italian Health system that is free for all, imagine what will happen in the US when the system will saturate (already happening in some areas) and what will uninsured people do (including those losing their job and so the health insurance provided by the employer) when they get sick (will they report the disease?, will they die alone at home as they cannot afford the to pay medical bills?).

I am really worried especially for the US and UK since their leaders have seriously undervalued the seriousness of this pandemic. You see almost 10K deaths in Italy, the potential for the US is in the millions if the lock-down is not taken seriously.

Good luck and stay home!

 

[ironchef]

Hi All, I am from Italy and maybe I have a more direct perception of what is happening here and will happen elsewhere with one or two weeks delay: the growth of the number of infected people and of hospitalized and deaths has been exponential until after more than 2 weeks of lock-down. It is now beginning to show shy signs of slowing but it still grows too fast to be manageable.

What is not easy to understand is that the problem is not the death rate in itself but the saturation of health care system.
For instance a hospital designed to manage 50 ICU at the same time now receive 20 new patients each day that need ICU which means that people will die simply because there are no ICU units and personnel enough for all, so far we have somehow managed thanks to heroic disposition of health care personnel, but it will not be enough. And we are talking about Italian Health system that is free for all, imagine what will happen in the US when the system will saturate (already happening in some areas) and what will uninsured people do (including those losing their job and so the health insurance provided by the employer) when they get sick (will they report the disease?, will they die alone at home as they cannot afford the to pay medical bills?).

I am really worried especially for the US and UK since their leaders have seriously undervalued the seriousness of this pandemic. You see almost 10K deaths in Italy, the potential for the US is in the millions if the lock-down is not taken seriously.

Good luck and stay home!

Thank you for your post and concerns for us in the US.

In peace time we bicker and argue to no end and we fumble through. However in crisis we will put away our differences, pull out all the stops to solve the problem. With ingenuity, determination and dedication, I am confident we shall overcome.

God bless America and the world.

 

[maxinger]

Hi All, I am from Italy and maybe I have a more direct perception of what is happening here and will happen elsewhere with one or two weeks delay: the growth of the number of infected people and of hospitalized and deaths has been exponential until after more than 2 weeks of lock-down. It is now beginning to show shy signs of slowing but it still grows too fast to be manageable.

What is not easy to understand is that the problem is not the death rate in itself but the saturation of health care system.
For instance a hospital designed to manage 50 ICU at the same time now receive 20 new patients each day that need ICU which means that people will die simply because there are no ICU units and personnel enough for all, so far we have somehow managed thanks to heroic disposition of health care personnel, but it will not be enough. And we are talking about Italian Health system that is free for all, imagine what will happen in the US when the system will saturate (already happening in some areas) and what will uninsured people do (including those losing their job and so the health insurance provided by the employer) when they get sick (will they report the disease?, will they die alone at home as they cannot afford the to pay medical bills?).

I am really worried especially for the US and UK since their leaders have seriously undervalued the seriousness of this pandemic. You see almost 10K deaths in Italy, the potential for the US is in the millions if the lock-down is not taken seriously.

Good luck and stay home!

good to hear view from an Italian.

I wonder what is true situation in China.
Their recent data looks very promising (hopefully it is genuine data).
If that data can be trusted, It offers hope for the world that CV can be controlled.

The whole world is producing millions of gloves and ventilators and masks and test kits & rapidly hiring temporary nurses etc.
The demand for these are far far too strong.