US Treasury Bonds Futures

T

tradermaji

Now that the gap from late May has been closed, will the bonds resume its upward move? The monthly chart shows an uptrend but for some real serious upmove it has to breakout of the massive triangle. As a private trader, I can't trade off this monthly chart because of the larger risk parameters, but it sure does help me to keep an eye on the long term trend. A lot of posters on a bunch of forums are bearish on bonds, and perhaps that is a leading indicator of bullishness of the bonds market :)

Just a thought, please post yours.

Maji
 

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The Fed has already mentioned the possibilty of reissuing 30 year bonds. If that happens I would imagne that will force the bonds down some and steepen the curve a bit.
 
Quote from hopback:

The Fed has already mentioned the possibilty of reissuing 30 year bonds. If that happens I would imagne that will force the bonds down some and steepen the curve a bit.
More...

I agree that this is what should happen, but since that annoucement they have rallied, so the opposite of what should happen is happening. The fed seems to be doing everything in their power to make these things sell off, but it just ain't happening, the major market manipulator is losing control.

5 yr
 
That technical parttern on the chart is invalid.

there was a 20 point difference between the DEC '99 contract and Mar '00 due to the switch form a hypothetical 8% yield to a hypothetical 6% yield.

I found an adjusted chart somewhere that showed a very strong uptrend that started in the 80's still going strong. You can imagine it if you look at the chart with the bad data and just subtract 20 points before 2000.
 
Quote from hopback:

The Fed has already mentioned the possibilty of reissuing 30 year bonds. If that happens I would imagne that will force the bonds down some and steepen the curve a bit.
More...


I believe that the Treasury dept. is going to make the final decision on Aug 3rd
 
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