created another thread because there can't be enough discussion on this in my opinion.
anybody who follows US economic headline numbers (which are already probably inflated to look better than they are) knows the situation. it's totally dire. ditto for banks' balance sheets - they've gotten worse, not better. they're trying to inflate their way out and have thrown trillions at the problem and the real economy is so bad it's not even providing the intended band-aid effect anymore.
i think it's important not to actually over analyze these problems - they're clear enough.
maybe we should dumb it down a bit to get a clearer perspective. ponzi schemes are all about confidence. as long as the music is playing the game can go on, and right now it's DEFINITELY going strong. i don't think it's about monetary policy in the conventional sense anymore - the intended effect here is to get enough suckers to prop up assets and banks to start lending to these suckers so we can keep the ponzi going for a couple more years. but we're not too far from our all time highs in the indices and commodities are soaring and the unemployment situation is not getting better so i think they're running out of greater fools to keep it going.
(i do feel bad for all the poor saps who have reinvested their IRAs here. theyre going to get fleeced all over again. a few of us may make couple bucks shorting stuff, but we'll pay it all back through taxes which will eventually go through the roof.)
the way i see it our only way out is to have HUGE growth to pay back the ponzi deficit that's been created the last two years (not to mention huge existing debt and entitlements prior to that) but that would require real growth - not ponzi style asset prop-ups.
wheres that going to come from? not the US, of that much i'm pretty sure.
i'm also at the point where i completely feel that bernanke's "monetary policy" and geithner's handling of the "banking crisis" were completely in line with something madoff would've come up with.
it's the same thing, guys. nobody's talking about real growth through new industries, our manufacturing talent, etc. c'mon america was good at fooling the world with financial innovation. a few people made out really well off it for a few years and we're left holding the bag.
now bernanke's solution is to try it again cause he knows our other option is debt deflation-depression scenario since none of us can do anything in this country anymore but daytrade and sell mortgages.
we're toast. maybe not this month or this year, but it's coming soon.
and i really hope im wrong, but it once again comes down to "real growth" at the end of the day.
i have no doubt it's a ponzi - bernanke will basically admit to as much, he's just trying to reflate so we get out of panic mode - my question is where the hell are we gonna get the next growth boom to pay for all this???
yet our stock market's 30% from all time highs and oil is at 80 a barrel. hmmm
anybody who follows US economic headline numbers (which are already probably inflated to look better than they are) knows the situation. it's totally dire. ditto for banks' balance sheets - they've gotten worse, not better. they're trying to inflate their way out and have thrown trillions at the problem and the real economy is so bad it's not even providing the intended band-aid effect anymore.
i think it's important not to actually over analyze these problems - they're clear enough.
maybe we should dumb it down a bit to get a clearer perspective. ponzi schemes are all about confidence. as long as the music is playing the game can go on, and right now it's DEFINITELY going strong. i don't think it's about monetary policy in the conventional sense anymore - the intended effect here is to get enough suckers to prop up assets and banks to start lending to these suckers so we can keep the ponzi going for a couple more years. but we're not too far from our all time highs in the indices and commodities are soaring and the unemployment situation is not getting better so i think they're running out of greater fools to keep it going.
(i do feel bad for all the poor saps who have reinvested their IRAs here. theyre going to get fleeced all over again. a few of us may make couple bucks shorting stuff, but we'll pay it all back through taxes which will eventually go through the roof.)
the way i see it our only way out is to have HUGE growth to pay back the ponzi deficit that's been created the last two years (not to mention huge existing debt and entitlements prior to that) but that would require real growth - not ponzi style asset prop-ups.
wheres that going to come from? not the US, of that much i'm pretty sure.
i'm also at the point where i completely feel that bernanke's "monetary policy" and geithner's handling of the "banking crisis" were completely in line with something madoff would've come up with.
it's the same thing, guys. nobody's talking about real growth through new industries, our manufacturing talent, etc. c'mon america was good at fooling the world with financial innovation. a few people made out really well off it for a few years and we're left holding the bag.
now bernanke's solution is to try it again cause he knows our other option is debt deflation-depression scenario since none of us can do anything in this country anymore but daytrade and sell mortgages.
we're toast. maybe not this month or this year, but it's coming soon.
and i really hope im wrong, but it once again comes down to "real growth" at the end of the day.
i have no doubt it's a ponzi - bernanke will basically admit to as much, he's just trying to reflate so we get out of panic mode - my question is where the hell are we gonna get the next growth boom to pay for all this???
yet our stock market's 30% from all time highs and oil is at 80 a barrel. hmmm
