US pharmacy giant offers up a big warning on the US consumer

[Overnight]

Beside the negative "tone", I was talking about negative view the market, always expecting a crash.

It's not just here...You should see all the non-financial people online out there who have been saying for years, and continue to say, that "The economy sucks" and "We're in a recession."

Because people cannot control their own discretionary spending, and whine when their Cheerios box cost $.50 more than it did three years ago? Then the "economy sux".

UnFUCKINGbelievable.

 

[NoahA]

I have been on Elite Trader since around 2011. Not always as a sponsor so under other names. I find it interesting the consistent negative view on the market. Always looking to be short and make a killing on a single down event. I have no real opinion before the election, but the tone is often wildly negative. Even when the market in most years trends up. I just find it very interesting to read.

That is because nobody expected the amount of bullshitting that could be done in order to keep the wheels on. Before 2008, QE was never really a thing, and then it hit the scene. The Fed never even reduced their balance sheet.

I have learned that one way to look at it is that there was never really a recovery since 2008, its was all just papered over. Here is an interesting chart to show the trend of the economy.

Furthermore, 0% rates for over a decade was I'm sure something that nobody ever expected would happen. And yet, this is exactly the drug that the market needed. Its like a special promotion at a store that never goes away. Imagine Black Friday pricing every single day.

Lastly, if we look at rates for the past 40 years, we can see that each time they attempt to raise them, they always end up much lower than the previous cycle, and right before a recession.

So my point with all of this is that its been a grind to the bottom. Nothing is better since 2008 except people got rewarded for reckless behaviour. Nobody could have predicted the lengths that they could go to in order to keep this madness going. They kept inventing new policies and procedures in order to extract even more value from the future. Its all just one big bubble and no organic growth or sustainability. Eventually when it crashes, the pain will be so much worse than if the problems were fixed back in 2008.

Just like with CPI changing the calculations, they keep changing the rules. Its easy to not have a crash when you can manipulate everything, but it doesn't mean the basis for the crash has been solved just because its been delayed by 15 years.

 

[SunTrader]

That is because nobody expected the amount of bullshitting that could be done in order to keep the wheels on. Before 2008, QE was never really a thing, and then it hit the scene. The Fed never even reduced their balance sheet.

I have learned that one way to look at it is that there was never really a recovery since 2008, its was all just papered over. Here is an interesting chart to show the trend of the economy.

View attachment 343112

Furthermore, 0% rates for over a decade was I'm sure something that nobody ever expected would happen. And yet, this is exactly the drug that the market needed. Its like a special promotion at a store that never goes away. Imagine Black Friday pricing every single day.

Lastly, if we look at rates for the past 40 years, we can see that each time they attempt to raise them, they always end up much lower than the previous cycle, and right before a recession.

View attachment 343113


So my point with all of this is that its been a grind to the bottom. Nothing is better since 2008 except people got rewarded for reckless behaviour. Nobody could have predicted the lengths that they could go to in order to keep this madness going. They kept inventing new policies and procedures in order to extract even more value from the future. Its all just one big bubble and no organic growth or sustainability. Eventually when it crashes, the pain will be so much worse than if the problems were fixed back in 2008.

Just like with CPI changing the calculations, they keep changing the rules. Its easy to not have a crash when you can manipulate everything, but it doesn't mean the basis for the crash has been solved just because its been delayed by 15 years.

And yet, just like Bitcoin, markets go higher and higher.

Coiners assume Bitcoin won't drop when markets do, but limited BTCUSD history says otherwise.

 

[Robert Morse]

My courses in Macro and Microeconomics in 1978 make me far from an expert on economics. To be honest, for most short-term traders, I think it is a distraction. I've said in the past, that I was a professional Market Maker for 25 years in the past. I learned a number of lessons. One of them was to trade the market we have, not the one we want. Fighting an uptrend or downtrend produces selective wins that we try and recreate over years that do not occur enough to profit from. There were times I expected a large drop in the market. Rather than put money at risk to bet that, I took action to protect myself. I was always very early. I "knew" there would be a tech crash, but the timing took about 6 months longer than I expected. I would have lost a lot of money before making a little. I "knew" the housing crash of 2008 would cause a banking problem, but I expected it a full year before. I did not expect Brokers to fail like Bear Sterns. Pending doom, I'm good at. Timing, terrible. Timing is more important. I have no idea when the market will correct. I have no idea when our debt will consume us. As a trader, you need to make money each week, and each month. I never judged myself by the day. I was a position trader in options. Losing money in the short run often created the best opportunities a week later.

 

[DallasCowboysFan]

My courses in Macro and Microeconomics in 1978 make me far from an expert on economics. To be honest, for most short-term traders, I think it is a distraction. I've said in the past, that I was a professional Market Maker for 25 years in the past. I learned a number of lessons. One of them was to trade the market we have, not the one we want. I did not expect Brokers to fail like Bear Sterns. Pending doom, I'm good at. Timing, terrible. Timing is more important. I have no idea when the market will correct. I have no idea when our debt will consume us. As a trader, you need to make money each week, and each month. I never judged myself by the day. I was a position trader in options. Losing money in the short run often created the best opportunities a week later.

Nice remarks.

 

[nitrene]

That is because nobody expected the amount of bullshitting that could be done in order to keep the wheels on. Before 2008, QE was never really a thing, and then it hit the scene. The Fed never even reduced their balance sheet.

I have learned that one way to look at it is that there was never really a recovery since 2008, its was all just papered over. Here is an interesting chart to show the trend of the economy.

View attachment 343112

Furthermore, 0% rates for over a decade was I'm sure something that nobody ever expected would happen. And yet, this is exactly the drug that the market needed. Its like a special promotion at a store that never goes away. Imagine Black Friday pricing every single day.

Lastly, if we look at rates for the past 40 years, we can see that each time they attempt to raise them, they always end up much lower than the previous cycle, and right before a recession.

View attachment 343113


So my point with all of this is that its been a grind to the bottom. Nothing is better since 2008 except people got rewarded for reckless behaviour. Nobody could have predicted the lengths that they could go to in order to keep this madness going. They kept inventing new policies and procedures in order to extract even more value from the future. Its all just one big bubble and no organic growth or sustainability. Eventually when it crashes, the pain will be so much worse than if the problems were fixed back in 2008.

Just like with CPI changing the calculations, they keep changing the rules. Its easy to not have a crash when you can manipulate everything, but it doesn't mean the basis for the crash has been solved just because its been delayed by 15 years.

Its the same story since the Lehman debacle -- no one wants to take a loss anymore certainly not the Oligarchs that have greased the politicians. There is no democracy or capitalism in the US anymore. It has mutated to a plutocracy where only the little people take losses never the Oligarchs.

So you're left with the same idiots who couldn't figure out why the real estate boom ended in catastrophe are now leading you into another disaster. They simply didn't understand risk despite their training & Ivy League education. This is why the old system of depressions worked to cleanse the cheaters & liars of previous excessive booms. The collapse of the 1930s brought a much better system precisely because the idiots who thought RCA stock could go the moon were rendered bankrupt, as it should be.