US Indices

FXtrader8911 said:
I'm targeting a DOW at around 24,500, i.e. back to May20 levels. This is the level that fits the current fundamentals and what I consider fair value without discounting for uncertainty of elections & virus, however, I'm not too confident that it will get there... would be good if it does as then trading can be tied to earnings rather than euphoria.

I don't think US markets will ever return to the March20 lows but a 22,500 DOW is possible if a black swan happens and markets overshoot fair value.
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Crunched the numbers so far. The probability for your Dow 22.5k level to materialize is very low in the near term. Dow 26.5K is more realistic if it drops this month but the odds is for it to go sideways.

One of my reasoning why Dow 22.5k is very unlikely is because there is not enough time to bring it back up again to 30k+ before 2021 if it does go down so far. One reason why I thought a low in the summer and then a high near election for the Dow. I was very wrong on that, so....

I still would stick to scalping for now.
 
So we crossed the Dow 30k earlier. We have much higher to go :D. But looks like it will happen shortly after new year instead of before new year. I expect a quick drop of about 2000 points before going to space again.

Drop ~2000 and go back up ~5000-6000 points. Thats how they normally operate.
 
So I was correct for a change this week is unsafe to long the US indices. I think the bottom is close for the Dow at least short term and I have started to go long.
 
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