US Home Price Decline Accelerates, steepest drop in 16 years.

[ElCubano]

Quote from aeliodon:

The question is where is that seller buying his replacement home. He's got to live somewhere and I doubt sellers are going to just take any low ball offer if it ain't enough to buy a comparable home at whatever place he's are moving to.
After this steep decline, we're going to get 7 years of a sideways price correction while RE valuations contract as incomes rise to make RE more affordable.

the seller is joe six pack who took out a line of credit against his home appreciation and is now trying to scurry to dump .... these condos where finished no more than 1- 1 1/2 yr ago....my friend bought his pad like 9 months ago or more at 360k they are now asking 250k for the same size unit in his building ....so he is pretty much upside down from the get go...peace

 

[domestic]

Quote from RiceRocket:

People are too pessimistic. The US economy is very resilient. Think 6 months to a year. Housing has already corrected enough that the median income buyers can come back into the market. Secondly, if you add the decline in the dollar into the calculation, housing prices are very cheap. If Americans won't buy real estate, very soon, the rest of the world will.

not to put words in anyones mouth, but......the reason many guys are saying this decline will be brutal is because they have seen it before. i am one of them. when i graduated with my last degree, and went into the family business thing went from boom to bust(not the business,"real estate values"). then it went down more. (circa 1990). if we bought some more commercial property then, i would be set way better than i am now. i will not make that mistake again. we will steal some sizable stuff; but not for a least another year.

there is no question s2007s is correct.

 

[makloda]

Quote from domestic:
there is no question s2007s is correct.

If there is no question, then buying at the money leap puts on home builders and regional banks with heavy home loan exposure will be GUARANTEED, RISK FREE MONEY.

Now how many of you are putting your money where you mouth is and actually trade according to your predictions?

 

[domestic]

Quote from makloda:

If there is no question, then buying at the money leap puts on home builders and regional banks with heavy home loan exposure will be GUARANTEED, RISK FREE MONEY.

Now how many of you are putting your money where you mouth is and actually trade according to your predictions?

can this trade be outside the "equities" world? if you allow that, then when i purchase some distressed properties(as i have done in the past), i will post the public records upon closing. i have done this before many times. i am not a wannabe.

also , i do not believe in risk free money. my trading consists of
"selling vol, not buying it; although it is never fully unbounded.

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from makloda:

If there is no question, then buying at the money leap puts on home builders and regional banks with heavy home loan exposure will be GUARANTEED, RISK FREE MONEY.

Now how many of you are putting your money where you mouth is and actually trade according to your predictions?

that price might already be factored into home builders...the topic is about home prices declining...and there is no denying it from at least my neck of the woods.. buying on the cheap doesn't necessarily guarantee you will make any dough either...for it might or might not take a while to ring out the excess....the poster just made a call that this wasnt the bottom in HOME PRICES and i think he might be correct....

 

[stock_trad3r]

Housing still expensive where I live

property values on the up & up

 

[gnome]

Other than those with "inventory"... builders and speculators... there haven't been many stories about owners being "forced to sell". We should experience that phase before there is any chance of seeing the bottom.

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Housing still expensive where I live

property values on the up & up

where do you live and are you going off of comparable buys that happened several months ago??? expensive and going up are 2 different things...

 

[gnome]

Expensive and still going up (according to local realtors) where I live, too.

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from gnome:

Other than those with "inventory"... builders and speculators... there haven't been many stories about owners being "forced to sell". We should experience that phase before there is any chance of seeing the bottom.

there are some that i personally know that are praying a hurricane hits just to postpone the inevitable...actually closing on a declining piece of property....wow I dont know whats scarier...the hurricane or that...