US Equity Markets will not go down

Quote from TGregg:

That we've not had any big down days in a long time :). Seriously though, I dunno. On one hand, it seems like a good stable long term uptrend would have a few big down days to release pressure and sucker in new bears. So maybe this is a sign of Irrational Exuberance. On the other, maybe it just shows that there is an amazing amount of money pouring in, and it's just a really, really strong trend.

But other things are just like this, like VIX at record lows. Does that mean we're topping? Maybe. Maybe it means there's even lower records coming.
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Equity inflows have not been anything to write home about, its just sort of blah. Their does not seem to be alot of convection on either side. This is a very very tough environment. I want the market to correct in a big way, but the dang thing just keeps bopping around.


http://www.amgdata.com/
 
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Quote from TGregg:

Whoops, I was wrong. In October of 1978, I show 797 trading days without a 2% down day. In `73 729 days.

Since 1978, our max was in 1986 at 560. Since the 90s, the highest was in the low 200s (like 221). And that's on the Dow, BTW.
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why do you focus on the 2% down day #
how bout a 2% up day - i doubt we've had many of those either in this 'bull market'
 
Question for all you market researchers: has volitility ever been lower than it is now? I fear for my livlihood if it goes any lower.
 
Quote from chewbacca:

why do you focus on the 2% down day #
how bout a 2% up day - i doubt we've had many of those either in this 'bull market'
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I used 2% since that's the trading curbs on S&P futures. I only did down since markets seem to like to creep up and drop down. Who knows how useful the number of days since the last 2% drop is, but the days since the last 2% pop would seem to be even less. But maybe I'll run those numbers just to see.
 
It's been 487 days in a row without a 2% up day, but as recently as 97 we had over 770.

Curiously it was on 4/5/94 that we ended a 573 day streak with no 2% up days, had a 2% or more up day, then streaked to 4/29/97 (three years later, almost to the day) when we ended a 775 day run. So if 4/5/94 had not been a big up day, we would have had a 1349 day run.

Which begs the question, how about 2% up or down days?

487 days since no 2% move up or down from the previous close in the Dow. One has to go back to 4/14/78 to see anything like it when we ended a 638 day streak.

Again, I have no idea if this is useful at all, just something I've been looking at.
 
Quote from TGregg:

It's been 487 days in a row without a 2% up day, but as recently as 97 we had over 770.

Curiously it was on 4/5/94 that we ended a 573 day streak with no 2% up days, had a 2% or more up day, then streaked to 4/29/97 (three years later, almost to the day) when we ended a 775 day run. So if 4/5/94 had not been a big up day, we would have had a 1349 day run.

Which begs the question, how about 2% up or down days?

487 days since no 2% move up or down from the previous close in the Dow. One has to go back to 4/14/78 to see anything like it when we ended a 638 day streak.

Again, I have no idea if this is useful at all, just something I've been looking at.
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but we have had tons of +1.6 to +1.9% up days imo.. tons....

not even close to -1.6 to -1.9% down days... none.. zero.. zilch.. nada..
 
Sep 7: A “calm” day for markets leaves gains.



Another “quiet” journey on the market today with the majors indexes disregarding of any “bad news” is around the corner ending higher and pointing out some resistance levels.

The range was little with the SP in 1231.5/1238 range and the QQQQ in a 39.23-39.50 zone all the session. Bulls didn’t scare in any moment of the day with the markets setting a day low above supports levels.

News that “Hurricane Katrina will reduce employment by 400,000 people in coming months while trimming economic growth by as much as a full percentage point in the second half of this year” didn’t help bears. The market looks set to deny any bear news (at least for now on) and ready to test the zone on 1242 on sp and 39.65/70 on Q’s. Anyway we have to be quite careful near this zone because we have seen a lot of times the market trade this way and then surprise with a big movement.

1240/2 as upper band of the channel and resistance level is key now on SP500 as well 39.60/70 is the zone for the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock. 1225-6 and 39/39.20 appears the low zone of the range , zone where I like to go long (in an intraday basis) with tight stops.

Finally I have to mention the Nyse composite, witch is now on all-time highs and going. The huge run we saw yesterday is giving bulls enough confidence to continue paying this index. 7590/7600 is the support area and is hard to find out how long can go, even when it looks a little exhausted on the last bars.

For tomorrow I expect a sideways market, like I say yesterday im not shorting until the 39.60/70 area, that zone if is hard to cross tomorrow it’s a good zone to catch some intraday short. 39/39.22 is still the area to go long. At this point, in this kind of market, I don’t like to go with the intraday-trend at least a major movement is confirmed.



Diego M Rolando, roc@roclerman.com, 9-7-2005 at the close



nyse7sep.png
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

100% up room to go with no downside risk is awesome$$$$$
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Man, there's nothing like wiping out the biggest sea port in the country to send the market soaring to new highs.

Let's blow up California.
 
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