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US Economy is moderating, but Dow has new record high everyday, why?
- Thread starter Happy Hopping
- Start date
Cathy Minehan (Fed president of Boston) on Fri. just issued her speech on 2007 andd 2008 forecast on US econ. She said 2007 is slightly below potential, i.e., like the current GDP around 2.x%, but in 2008, she forecast a at potential GDP, meaning a better yr. than 2007
So now we have more than 1 fed official debunk you people's "Slow down" theory.
So now we have more than 1 fed official debunk you people's "Slow down" theory.
Quote from Happy Hopping:
Cathy Minehan (Fed president of Boston) on Fri. just issued her speech on 2007 andd 2008 forecast on US econ. She said 2007 is slightly below potential, i.e., like the current GDP around 2.x%, but in 2008, she forecast a at potential GDP, meaning a better yr. than 2007
So now we have more than 1 fed official debunk you people's "Slow down" theory.
1 year slowdown and than continued growth, seems to easy.
Quote from Happy Hopping:
Cathy Minehan (Fed president of Boston) on Fri. just issued her speech on 2007 andd 2008 forecast on US econ. She said 2007 is slightly below potential, i.e., like the current GDP around 2.x%, but in 2008, she forecast a at potential GDP, meaning a better yr. than 2007
So now we have more than 1 fed official debunk you people's "Slow down" theory.
Cathy is betting Emerging, Europe and Japan will continue to grow by then which gives the necessary boost to US exports and ultimately assure the US can keep the economic engine rolling. It is very easy to turn around your economy around when everybody out there is buying your stuff like crazy. I like to see how she pull that off if China and Europe goes to sleep.
Alright, what about donald Kohn comment today? did you guys read it?
In a nutshell, he is saying similar things like what Bernanke is saying, that we are at the season of one of the highes profit ever from businesses, and eventhough consumer spending will be slow due to housing sector slowdown, business spending offset that shortcoming.
my view, however, what we are seeing in the recent information on factory output and capital spending is not the leading edge of general economic weakness but instead an adjustment to a sustained pace of expansion that, necessarily, is less rapid than that from mid-2003 to mid-2006. A number of indicators continue to suggest that economic activity outside the housing and motor vehicle sectors is likely to post continuing healthy gains over coming quarters.
Profits have been high, encouraging business expansion, and external funding for capital projects remains readily available on favorable terms.
In a nutshell, he is saying similar things like what Bernanke is saying, that we are at the season of one of the highes profit ever from businesses, and eventhough consumer spending will be slow due to housing sector slowdown, business spending offset that shortcoming.
Quote from Happy Hopping:
business spending offset that shortcoming.
Yeah, just like after bouncing back in 2002-2003, the businesses took all that cash made from relentless cost cutting & Fed infused liquidity and.....?
Businesses don't throw money back into the US economy anymore. The cash goes to the higher execs and to buy back stock. Good for the companies & their stock, bad for the rest. Hence another reason why the Dow keeps trucking higher while 90% of the people experience a dwindling economy.
the economy.......how important is the economy in the eyes of company execs and ceos.......this is the real question........this leads to......insider selling........
paraphrased:
http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2006/12/insider_selling.html
........the immediacy of price trend is most immediately affected by immediate people trends........what kind of trend are we seeing here.......?
Maybe the point here is not to figure how well the execs and ceos know the economy.....how well they know their own business and the likelyhood that they have seen a top in their own business models and cycles......
MM1
paraphrased:
http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2006/12/insider_selling.html
.......CCH Washington Service Bureau, an SEC data miner, November saw US company executives offload $8.4 billion in stock and make just $133 million in purchases. The resulting sell-to-buy ratio of 63.18 has not been seen since January 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ........breaking 2,000 for the first time (it's now at 12,300). With the index up 15% this year, and the S&P 500 up 12% (having nearly doubled from its 2002 low), ........
insiders put in 6.34 sell orders for every buy in the two months leading up to Dec 1 2006
....... the headline $8.4 billion in sales represents the fifth highest sum since .......19 years ago. The highest: just under $14 billion in March 2000 all-time highs. They have yet to revisit those peaks.
With the US market up 10% in the final quarter of the year, executives are clearly using the opportunity to sell (a lot) into strength. Food for thought as you allocate your 2007 retirement contribution.
........the immediacy of price trend is most immediately affected by immediate people trends........what kind of trend are we seeing here.......?
Maybe the point here is not to figure how well the execs and ceos know the economy.....how well they know their own business and the likelyhood that they have seen a top in their own business models and cycles......
MM1
Earlier on, when you said "watch the transport", are you referring to
^DJT?
The Dow Jones Trans Average? Because it is been going up since Aug.
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=1y;indicator=ema(200);charttype=ohlc;crosshair=cross;logscale=on;source=undefined
Now, as to that article if insiders are selling that much, wouldn't it be fair to say mutual fund are buying much more so to offset the sell, and thus, push these 3 indices (Nas, Dow, S&P) up even higher?
I mean, if your article is true, and there is that much selling, then these 3 indices should go down in Nov. & Dec. rather than hitting high and record high (Dow) in those 2 mth.?
You can see the results of the indices is the OPPOSITE of what you guys are saying.
^DJT?
The Dow Jones Trans Average? Because it is been going up since Aug.
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^djt;range=1y;indicator=ema(200);charttype=ohlc;crosshair=cross;logscale=on;source=undefined
Now, as to that article if insiders are selling that much, wouldn't it be fair to say mutual fund are buying much more so to offset the sell, and thus, push these 3 indices (Nas, Dow, S&P) up even higher?
I mean, if your article is true, and there is that much selling, then these 3 indices should go down in Nov. & Dec. rather than hitting high and record high (Dow) in those 2 mth.?
You can see the results of the indices is the OPPOSITE of what you guys are saying.