Hey AMT, guys like us don't have nearly the amount to worry that the anti gun people have...LOL
I currently see this as a non issue at this stage of the game. I think it needs to be watched and just do a wait and see approach and perhaps hedge anything that is really out there and long.
http://www.paid2trade.com/?p=1067
Mexican Health Ministry given emergency powers
While this was largely baked into the market on Friday it needs to be closely monitored.
Firstly, the World Health Organization states that there are 3 to 5 million cases of seasonal influenza each year and around 250,000 to 500,000 people die from influenza A and B each year. So when less than 100 people die out of a city of over 22 million and not all deaths are in Mexico City its not even a data point much less a current crisis outside of Mexico.
What we do want to do is watch and see if this flu gathers any traction and is actually spreading from person to person. At that point the flu could be market influencing very quickly(along with the obvious social impacts). If Mexico canââ¬â¢t keep a lid on this and with their health care system it would not take much to reach a tipping point, the entire government could become unstable. Mexico plans on administering its remaining 500K vaccines from the flu season to health works. It appears that the Mexican health system currently has enough generic Tamiflu (which appears to be effective against the new stain) to treat about 1 million people or less than 5% of Mexico City. Roche Pharmaceuticals the maker of Tamiflu has stated that the company is prepared to immediately deploy a stockpile of the drug if requested*
The Mexican Health Ministry has been given emergency powers as a result of the Swine flue outbreak. While still statistically insignificant in terms of the number of deaths Mexico City has closed all its schools & Universities along with handing out face masks.
Also troubling is that the CDC has stated the DNA is unique with unknown gene segments that have not been seen in people or pigs before. This of course brings up the question of is this a virus that mutated or is altered in a lab? It also means that we do not have enough time to react with news drugs and will be dependent on whats available.
This was somewhat baked into the market Friday but should be monitored. Any news coming out this week could really send the volatility higher and I would not want to be long anything Mexican right now without being fully hedged.
* In a world wide fast spreading deadly virus outbreak its my opinion that leaders of countries with supplies of needed Tamiflu and other related drugs would be pressured to restrict the export to other countries
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...xicoflu_25int.ART.State.Edition2.4ab098e.html
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/25/swine.flu/index.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517773,00.html?sPage=fnc/health/infectious
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30386163/