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US Dollar
- Thread starter TM1982
- Start date
Quote from TM1982:
I also want out of this currency but I'm debating whether to convert now (aussie dollar, yen) or wait for the dollar bounce and convert at that point.
It would be a huge mistake to convert to AUD right now. Less than a year ago it was at 1.63 against USD and now it's 1.10. You would most likely be converting at the bottom. When the bear market resumes AUD and CAD are going to get beaten particularly bad. Take a look at how currencies reacted last fall.
Long USD is the way to go. We have formed a multi year bottom.
Do not be fooled by the slow grind down of the USD. Things can turn around very fast. Very very fast. In 1998 I believe the yen appreciated 18% in four days when the carry trade briefly unwound.
Quote from fullblotter:
It would be a huge mistake to convert to AUD right now. Less than a year ago it was at 1.63 against USD and now it's 1.10. You would most likely be converting at the bottom. When the bear market resumes AUD and CAD are going to get beaten particularly bad. Take a look at how currencies reacted last fall.
Long USD is the way to go. We have formed a multi year bottom.
Do not be fooled by the slow grind down of the USD. Things can turn around very fast. Very very fast. In 1998 I believe the yen appreciated 18% in four days when the carry trade briefly unwound.
True but long term, obviously the dollar is finished. Right?
Quote from kashirin:
deficit is really huge. what country saved for 10 years is spent just in one year and no end in sight for this deficits
Canada will repay for this recession at least 50 years if C$ doesn't collapse with US$
add provincial deficits which is comparable in Ontario to the government and the budget situation probably worse than in states
And yes, bank of Canada will not intervene directly - they just will print dollars which might just crash C$ like it happened to GBP
And yes, there is a huge real estate bubble with RE prices 50% higher than in US during their peak. and prices are 5-10 incomes
And yes, canadian banks are not conservative at all as all loans are insured by the government
and yes there is massive fraud happens right now in RE comparable to NINJA fiasco in states as a lot of people just provide false income information and banks don't check it as all is insured by the government and they don't really care
when the bubble pops it's gonna be much uglier than in states
My friend, you clearly have no clue what you're talking about...
1. Deficit projected @ $55 billion and expected to be repayed by 2015.
2. The deficit number above is for the entire country. It is not the federal deficit only...
3. BOC has explicity stated they will not bring down the value of the Loonie. Did you miss that part of my last post?
4. There is NOT a huge real estate bubble. How is a real estate bubble created? Increased demand due to excessive lending to those who don't deserve mortgages. These lending practices do not take place in Canada. Which leads to my next point:
5. Canadian banks are notorious globally for their lending conservatism, due in part to restrictions placed by the government. Come on, this was an easy one!
Lastly,
6. I have no idea what your last paragraph regarding fraud is supposed to mean.
Quote from Kassz007:
My friend, you clearly have no clue what you're talking about...
1. Deficit projected @ $55 billion and expected to be repayed by 2015.
2. The deficit number above is for the entire country. It is not the federal deficit only...
3. BOC has explicity stated they will not bring down the value of the Loonie. Did you miss that part of my last post?
4. There is NOT a huge real estate bubble. How is a real estate bubble created? Increased demand due to excessive lending to those who don't deserve mortgages. These lending practices do not take place in Canada. Which leads to my next point:
5. Canadian banks are notorious globally for their lending conservatism, due in part to restrictions placed by the government. Come on, this was an easy one!
Lastly,
6. I have no idea what your last paragraph regarding fraud is supposed to mean.
How strange. you even don't have understanding of basic numbers. And still trying to argue
1. it's not expected to be repayed. it's expected to stop. But debt will still remain and will be repaid through increased taxes for several generations
2. the deficit above just for government of Canada. Ontario has separate deficit of 18 billions. each other province also runs huge deficits
3. BOC will not interven. it will print money. Do you have trouble to understand difference?
Bank of England hasn't intervened. They just printed 175 bln. Is it difficult to understand?
4. There IS huge real estate bubble. And it caused by excessive lending as you pointed to those who don't deserve mortgages as most of current buyers need 5-10 yearly incomes to buy property which is clearly a bubble. and that leads to my next point
5. Canadian banks won't be considered conservative after RE bubble will pop and all fraud is revealed
6. if you don' t understand basic concept of the fraud in RE how can you discuss canadian conservatism?
Quote from TM1982:
True but long term, obviously the dollar is finished. Right?
it might be, it might not. what is certain is that all these people calling for the dollar's demise are clueless. none of them saw the huge USD rally last fall because they apparently all take a "long term" view. "long term" is basically a euphemism for "I'm a fucking retard". eventually everything could happen. the future of the US does not look promising but it could take 5, 10, 20 or 30 years before "it" happens, if "it" even happens. in the meantime the USD will have rallied enormous amounts against these kook currencies.
a safe play is to be 50% USD and 50% other currencies but only if you converted at decent levels. eg, CAD in the 1.20's, euro over 75, AUD over 1.3 at least. at these levels I would be converting into USD not the other way around. it might go a bit lower but if this is a true bear market then when USD bounces it will explode.
the irony of the doomsday kooks is they strongly feel the worst is yet to come yet they are extremely bearish on USD. the only way USD keeps falling is if we have made a complete recovery and are back to the good ole times. any hint of the return of trouble and USD rips.
Quote from fullblotter:
it might be, it might not. what is certain is that all these people calling for the dollar's demise are clueless. none of them saw the huge USD rally last fall because they apparently all take a "long term" view. "long term" is basically a euphemism for "I'm a fucking retard". eventually everything could happen. the future of the US does not look promising but it could take 5, 10, 20 or 30 years before "it" happens, if "it" even happens. in the meantime the USD will have rallied enormous amounts against these kook currencies.
a safe play is to be 50% USD and 50% other currencies but only if you converted at decent levels. eg, CAD in the 1.20's, euro over 75, AUD over 1.3 at least. at these levels I would be converting into USD not the other way around. it might go a bit lower but if this is a true bear market then when USD bounces it will explode.
the irony of the doomsday kooks is they strongly feel the worst is yet to come yet they are extremely bearish on USD. the only way USD keeps falling is if we have made a complete recovery and are back to the good ole times. any hint of the return of trouble and USD rips.
That's one of the best posts I've seen on these forums. Thanks!
Quote from fullblotter:
it might be, it might not. what is certain is that all these people calling for the dollar's demise are clueless. none of them saw the huge USD rally last fall because they apparently all take a "long term" view.
Wrong.
August 09, 2008
Marc Faber
My view was that after 4 years of underperformance in the US compared to Europe, that the US would now outperform for 3-6 months and I still maintain that. The dollar can continue to rally somewhat as Europe will have to cut interest rates as well, and their economies are most likely much weaker than perceived.
I am not buying US stocks, but I am long the US dollar.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/mark-faber-bullish-on-us-bearish-on.html
Quote from kashirin:
How strange. you even don't have understanding of basic numbers. And still trying to argue
1. it's not expected to be repayed. it's expected to stop. But debt will still remain and will be repaid through increased taxes for several generations
2. the deficit above just for government of Canada. Ontario has separate deficit of 18 billions. each other province also runs huge deficits
3. BOC will not interven. it will print money. Do you have trouble to understand difference?
Bank of England hasn't intervened. They just printed 175 bln. Is it difficult to understand?
4. There IS huge real estate bubble. And it caused by excessive lending as you pointed to those who don't deserve mortgages as most of current buyers need 5-10 yearly incomes to buy property which is clearly a bubble. and that leads to my next point
5. Canadian banks won't be considered conservative after RE bubble will pop and all fraud is revealed
6. if you don' t understand basic concept of the fraud in RE how can you discuss canadian conservatism?
Show me one single piece of evidence that Canadian banks practiced excessive lending which is leading to a real estate bubble. It is simply not true. The real estate bubble, if it exists, would have already popped when it did in the USA.
You are the only person in the entire world who thinks Canadian banks have lended excessively and aren't considered conservative...the only one.
Please explain how real estate fraud and Canadian conservatism are linked. If you are able to....
Quote from fullblotter:
it might be, it might not. what is certain is that all these people calling for the dollar's demise are clueless. none of them saw the huge USD rally last fall because they apparently all take a "long term" view. "long term" is basically a euphemism for "I'm a fucking retard". eventually everything could happen. the future of the US does not look promising but it could take 5, 10, 20 or 30 years before "it" happens, if "it" even happens. in the meantime the USD will have rallied enormous amounts against these kook currencies.
a safe play is to be 50% USD and 50% other currencies but only if you converted at decent levels. eg, CAD in the 1.20's, euro over 75, AUD over 1.3 at least. at these levels I would be converting into USD not the other way around. it might go a bit lower but if this is a true bear market then when USD bounces it will explode.
the irony of the doomsday kooks is they strongly feel the worst is yet to come yet they are extremely bearish on USD. the only way USD keeps falling is if we have made a complete recovery and are back to the good ole times. any hint of the return of trouble and USD rips.
rational observers of current conditions is more like it. No one really knows where the dollar is headed, but if it is up, how high and for how long? Lets hear that.