Playing contrarian for this weeks FED, it would appear that a rate cut has already been priced in to the broad markets. A 25 bp cut will prob not get you much more dollar downside as everone and their dog is short the dollar. What could be more suprising is if the FED actually held rates steady with the yada yada of vigilance and more yada yada.
Only reason I am having doubts is that with global indices at or near record highs, and dollar at or near record lows with energy at all time highs, it makes a hard justification for the FED to loosen any more.
So rate cut of 25 and dollar likely goes nowhere, leading to some short-covering to take some profits. No cut and dollar has a very swift rally.
The one outlier is a 50 bp but, which seems more destabilizing than helpful thus leading me to believe that it won't go this time.
Only reason I am having doubts is that with global indices at or near record highs, and dollar at or near record lows with energy at all time highs, it makes a hard justification for the FED to loosen any more.
So rate cut of 25 and dollar likely goes nowhere, leading to some short-covering to take some profits. No cut and dollar has a very swift rally.
The one outlier is a 50 bp but, which seems more destabilizing than helpful thus leading me to believe that it won't go this time.
