Interessting analysis:
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...out-the-economy-that-should-freak-you-ou.aspx
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Rising interest rates could be devastating
The federal government has $16 trillion of debt, $11 trillion of which is owned by the public (the rest is held by government entities like Social Security). Last year we paid $230 billion in interest on that debt, so the average interest rate is a little over 2%.
That's incredibly low, and returning to more average interest rates could balloon the deficit. Since 1970, the average interest rate paid on debt held by the public is 5.9%. If interest rates returned to that average, our annual interest tab would rise by $400 billion. That's about four times what the federal government currently spends on education and training. The average interest rate on federal debt was highest in 1982, at 9.3%. Returning to that level would add $800 billion to our annual interest bill, which is more than we currently spend on Social Security.
Households aren't in much better shape. Since 2009, investors have pumped nearly $1 trillion into bond mutual funds, $400 billion into Treasuries, and more still into bond ETFs. If interest rates rise, the value of these investments could fall sharply. The last time interest rates were near current levels, in the 1950s, Treasury bonds lost 40% of their inflation-adjusted value over the following three decades.
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Another interessting analysis is the following, which shows China's financials is more at danger than the US:
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...ell-china.aspx?source=ihpdspmra0000001&lidx=3
but OTOH nowadays we live in a global intertwined economy, everything depends on each other, meaning: normally no one can afford a crisis... but still, a remote crisis can also be an opportunity...
