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US Could Be Heading for a Recession
- Thread starter wareco
- Start date
Q2 is done and gone. Q3 is 2/3 gone.
I think Q4 could easily come in zero or negative, and same with Q1 of 08.
It all depends how low you pretend inflation is...
I think Q4 could easily come in zero or negative, and same with Q1 of 08.
It all depends how low you pretend inflation is...
Quote from rcanfiel:
With a 4.5% unemployment rate, I disagree. The Rocky Mountain states are at full employment, it is a major struggle to find workers.
The USA still manufacturs twice the dollar value of China.
The US economy still dominates any other country. The dollar still rules worldwide.
Nobody touches the USA in creativity or new development in many areas, from software development to medical to many other industries
Your problem is that you dont really understand what makes a good economy. USA is a falling giant and nobody can stop that now. The top companies that give the USA the illusion of prosperity can easily move their headquarters to another country.
Q2 preliminary GDP reported Thursday has been revised upward to 4.1%. PCE on Friday.
One caveat is that we won't know to what effect the liquidity calamity earlier this month had on the economy until later in the year.
One caveat is that we won't know to what effect the liquidity calamity earlier this month had on the economy until later in the year.
the get a positive GDP simply lie about the price deflator calculations....
inflation incl. food and energy is around 5% give or take so street level GDP is negative....
same goes for BLS business birth/death models that inflate job growth by 100's of thousands
the gov. numbers are bullshit...and we are in recession already
inflation incl. food and energy is around 5% give or take so street level GDP is negative....
same goes for BLS business birth/death models that inflate job growth by 100's of thousands
the gov. numbers are bullshit...and we are in recession already
Quote from S2007S:
"could be"
I think the US is already in a Recession.
is this based on your random thoughts or some special data that only you have access to? or perhaps you have no idea what 'recession' means and are just throwing it around meaninglessly. all the public data out there says the country is not in a recession.
The top companies that give the USA the illusion of prosperity can easily move their headquarters to another country.
I guess, for some reason, foreign companies don't and will not do it.
I am learning not to insult people but with posts like this it's sooooo hard.
P.S. It would be funny to see what would happen if the mirage of U.S. economy just dissappeared from the Earth.LOL
I guess, for some reason, foreign companies don't and will not do it.
I am learning not to insult people but with posts like this it's sooooo hard.
P.S. It would be funny to see what would happen if the mirage of U.S. economy just dissappeared from the Earth.LOL
We are in a recession
Several posters mentioned it already
Real inflation (only fools believe the gov inflation #) knocks real GDP to 0 or negative territory
Of course you shouldn't care if you are on Wall Street and benefiting from this liquidity boom (aka printing dollars) or if you are CEO and have just picked up a nice bonus for reducing expenses by outsourching more work.
If you are in those 2 groups, your income is increasing much faster than the pace of inflation
Several posters mentioned it already
Real inflation (only fools believe the gov inflation #) knocks real GDP to 0 or negative territory
Of course you shouldn't care if you are on Wall Street and benefiting from this liquidity boom (aka printing dollars) or if you are CEO and have just picked up a nice bonus for reducing expenses by outsourching more work.
If you are in those 2 groups, your income is increasing much faster than the pace of inflation
<i>"all the public data out there says the country is not in a recession."</i>
How good is said public data? That's the question. When figuring any equation, the solution is only valid as the constant.
Take non-farm payrolls, durable goods, PPI and CPI data provided by the government and we come up with x-statistic.
In reality, how truthful are those numbers? That's the question.
How good is said public data? That's the question. When figuring any equation, the solution is only valid as the constant.
Take non-farm payrolls, durable goods, PPI and CPI data provided by the government and we come up with x-statistic.
In reality, how truthful are those numbers? That's the question.