US buildup in Persian Gulf

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SouthAmerica: The moderator of this forum does not know the difference between "Economics" and markets and "Politics and Religion"

He just moved the thread "The China Price" which is the ultimate in economic lesson to the United States and to the world - he moved that thread from the economics forum to the Politics and Religion forum.

He thinks that the word China might imply something to do with Buddhism and Kung Fu - He must watch on television a lot of Shaolin martial arts
movies.


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Quote from romik:

If Iran is allowed to leave NPT, then they will not have to answer to any state on their nuclear policy, just like Israel, India, Pakistan. Perhaps this is the way Iran will handle this. I don't quite understand legalities of the treaty, maybe some of you can comment.
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Do they do it now? I don't think so.
 
Here is quote from this article:

'To further the goal of non-proliferation and as a confidence-building measure between States parties'

Iranians act like they are not bound by NFP and they do nothing to contribute to confidence building between them and the Security Council.
 
Quote from gkishot:

Here is quote from this article:

'To further the goal of non-proliferation and as a confidence-building measure between States parties'

Iranians act like they are not bound by NFP and they do nothing to contribute to confidence building between them and the Security Council.
More...

But Iranians have always acted like they are above everyone and anything else. It's well beyond simple confidence building – it’s an ingrained philosophical and mental dysfunction that can not be reasoned or negotiated with. It’s customary and polite to try once or twice to appeal to reason. But after repeatedly beating one’s head against the wall it fundamentally becomes a waste of time to continue the same thing while expecting different outcomes. That’s the definition of insanity. Right now, the planet has precious few options and time remaining to work with Iran. Chief among those options is accelerating the clock to let the conflict reach its logical conclusion sooner rather than later when they have nukes.

If interested in a long read, my own detailed take on the matter follows.

Cheers,
TS

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My Take:
Looking deeper, Iran, is just another ancient and defeated Middle Eastern Empire (e.g. Persian Empire) which suffers the same old ancient hubris, humiliation and low self esteem that the majority of the region’s nations suffer (e.g. most notably the Arab world). They see the west advancing globally in influence and power as they drop further into isolation, poverty and social irrelevance. Iran hopes to ratchet their relevance up by conflicting itself with a major world power (e.g. the USA and at times Europe) to win esteem (not sure who they think they can impress though since most hate or fear them). Iran also simply tends toward suicidal tendencies common to the region's peoples and cultures. This too extends from hubris since it can’t accept being subordinated or seen as wrong or failing in anything it does.

The key here is understanding that inwardly Iranians have been conditioned by social and religious tradition to see themselves as superior to the rest of the world; and in particular the west. But they can't resolve the nagging reality of what they see all around them everyday; and that is the west growing in regional influence, dominance and prosperity. What we see as normal economic expansion they see as a life and death struggle for cultural dominance. So, they chose an offensive posture by proxying forces against us at various pressure points (e.g. Hezbollah, China-Russia alliances etc.). But the thing that consumes them and stirs up a rage of emotion and internal conflict is that they simply can't accept or resolve that the world accepts the west’s leadership over their own. This “insult” furthers their own insecurity and becomes an attack on their very own identity. It all stems from the powerful forces of hubris which nags at them daily. It forces them to repeatedly try to resolve how the inferior and racially intermixed Kafirs of the west (and Jew lovers at that) can keep them down & beneath their rightful inheritances. The final straw in Iran’s identity conflict is that the west seems to actually prosper and appear abundantly blessed and in God's favor. This enrages them and makes suicidal behavior (in God’s name) the only way to get back to God to prove themselves more deserving. In a nutshell, they think to put God to the test to force Him to chose them over the evil west. Theologically speaking they are infantile in this behavior. There is little the west can do to accommodate what essentially is a child having a temper tantrum by trying to become more lethal through adolescent motives. Trying to ignore them will only result in more escalation and at some point they will need to be spanked or have their toys taken away before they have a conniption and resort to suicidal tendencies with a global temper tantrum. I am hoping that Iran still has enough living intellectuals and students to take back the place from the madmen if it comes to the worse.

Again, for emphasis, I think the real serious problem is that they think they are theologically and spiritually superior to the rest of the planet and that the west’s emergence is contrary to divine plan. The apparent reality of that thesis being wrong causes the real conflict since they can not accept that the US in particular, as a supporter of Israel can be in God’s favor. So they think the west essentially is out to make them look and feel like impotent fools before both God and man. They can't intellectually, emotionally or spiritually resolve how God permits the evil & blasphemous west to make tremendous strides in technology, medicines, arts, economies etc. while they, as God's preferred and chosen (in their own minds), have contributed almost nothing to advance themselves nor humanity for over 800 years. Thus, they are rotting inside from contempt, envy and social jealousy of the west. Using the same imagery of their own metaphorical thinking they seek to murder the west in much the same way that Cain slew Able out of a jealous rage that God does not reward them as abundantly for their sacrifice. So, they demonize us and have made us the Great Satan and think they will please God by sacrificing us to Him. Their rage and contempt is so consuming that they can not comprehend the theological lunacy in a plan that would make themselves equals with God by defeating Satan for God (as if God needs them).

So people, get used to it. This conflict with Iran simply comes down to infantile and adolescent thinking and character flaws in Iranian culture. In their eyes: We are the modern day scapegoat that must be slaughtered and humiliated for God since we are evil and they are God’s new chosen (they forget that they are the Johnny-come-lately & Judaism predates Islam by thousands of years and Christianity predates by over 600 years). We, the West, are the cause of all their problems and keep them from God’s favor. Only we, the West and Israel hold them back from their rightful place as supreme rulers and leaders of the world. What only a very few people yet understand is that Iranians have embraced fascism and are very much of a Nazi mentality. In fact, philosophically they have embraced the very same idealism as Hitler did but this time has wrapped it in an Arab-Persian religious-social motif. It’s the very same snake we fought in WWII and it insists that its time to put it out of its misery so it can get back into paradise.

It’s a shame that Iran has acted so poorly since it does have something to offer the planet and humanity than just another history page of just another pathetic nation’s demise, humiliation and failure. Iran was given the choice to join in as a partner of the global community and contribute to the advancement of humanity. Instead, much to its own future suffering Iran has demanded to lead the world as its savior without being invited. As such, it would rather commit suicide and inflict massive global calamity as an expression of spite than give-in and contribute to the human race's advancement under a model that is not of their own design. They see compromise or cooperative advancement as capitulating to evil. That parochial view makes this conflict to be to-the-death or it leads to complete subjugation of the rest of us or a temporary and tenuous peace that will become rooted in perpetual extortion and subject to the daily whim of lunatics.

If there was ever a case to be made for complete and overwhelming offensive preemption as a morally acceptable tactic this is that case against Iran. Anything less will be viewed by them as failure by the west and a miraculous sign that God wishes them to continue to fight against evil.

It is interesting to note that Iran's lingering vision and dream of a re-expressed Persian Empire contains all the same fatal flaws and vision errors that Iraq's now dead, humiliated and disgraced Saddam Hussein had for Iraq. But, more dangerous here is that Iran also thinks they are to be the world's saviors. She can't fathom that no one asked for nor wants her nightmarish vision of Shangri-La (AKA Shia-Islam). So she will attempt to do the only thing that the criminally and corrupt minded have always done - use intimidation and extortion with ever increasing lethality. She is committed to forcing her views on the rest of the planet; even if it means killing it all off, since to live in the shadow of the west is too hard for her hubris to accept.

Unless the good people of Iran rise up and take back their country Iran will ultimately meet with the same fate that Saddam & his Iraq met with - chaos, destruction, humiliation and the balkanization of that nation into warring factions and war-lords. So much for a self appointed savior and a fascism wrapped in the veil of a man-made mythology. Pity that a lot of humanity is going to suffer all because of another middle-east madman (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad).

I am convinced now that it’s all caused by something in the water over there or it’s genetic. Perhaps its both & somewhere in the Middle Eastern history there is to blame some wild ass of a donkey that was much loved by the local women and was too dumb to not drink from waters down stream of its own urinary waste.

:D

TS
 
Wow. I thought my posts were long.

I take a shorter view of history.

Iran was influenced most heavily by shiite fundamentalism (not the current breed of undereducated wahabbist suicide soldiers) 25 years ago. They took a cheap shot at the US and succeeded because our president chose a weaker course of negotiation rather than military force in any significant fashion.

So, with regime change affected in afghanistan & iraq, don,t you think the iranians see a big target sign painted on their chests? Of course. Hence the rhetoric & the hope they can remain sovereign long enough to get the bomb.

Which may or may not be in everyone's best interest.
 
It's quite simple.

Remove the smoke & mirrors and here is what you have:

1) Iran makes a direct attack on the US$ as expected.

2) US saw it coming years prior (even before 9/11)

3) Attack on Iran has been planned for years, while likely, it may not be necessary.

Saddam made the same action back in late 2000 and has been talking about it years prior. OPEC's minutes of their meeting in 2000 suggested the same but without any real resolution or backbone.

The "diplomatic" course by USA involves making Iran a pariah and influencing Europe & China to avoid doing business with Iran. Then destabilizing Iran from within, cause it's not like everything is fine & dandy there, far from it.

The more likely course is what is happening now, force build up, U.N. nuclear inspections, Israel involvement, etc.
 
Quote from drsteph:


...So, with regime change affected in afghanistan & iraq, don,t you think the iranians see a big target sign painted on their chests? Of course. Hence the rhetoric & the hope they can remain sovereign long enough to get the bomb.

Which may or may not be in everyone's best interest.
More...

They themselves painted that target on their chests years before 9-11 when the declared war on the US, took our embassy hostage and started an active campaign to operate terrorists cells against the west, western allies, and western interests. They re-validated that contempt and declaration of war when they sent in mercenaries into Iraq to teach insurgents how to kill Americans. They re-validated that declaration of war when they elected to declare war in Lebanon against the US backed democratic government and funded Hezbollah and other terrorists activities. They deserve to feel as a target because they wear that target as a sign of pride and identity.

But you put forth an interesting perspective that it may be in every-one's interest for Iran to get a nuke. If that results in focusing western will or Israel to actions that lead to their annihilation or overthrow then perhaps I can agree with you. But the high loss of life that such a scenario will lead to makes it pragmatically a no-go in my mind.

But this idea resonates with a simple tongue-n-cheek solution to all of this that I have often toyed with. Imagine the US calling a bluff on Europe's indifference and inaction as well as simultaneously driving a wedge between Iran & China/Russia. How? By feigning to normalize relations with Iran. This is going to sound mad but think about the global dynamic if the calendar can be advanced to remove all doubt that Iran is going to have a nuke. What if the US made a public statement of intent to give Iran a few high-quality and reliable short range nukes (ones capable of hitting Europe). This would be presented as a gesture of "trust" in exchange for Iran abandoning their own nuclear programs. Sounds insane doesn't it? And that's what makes it so perfect - forcing irrational and indifferent people to live in the shadows of insane people armed with insanely lethal weapons. It would stir the pot up over there with some of our fair weather friends (Sunni Arab nations, Europe, China, Russia, Israel etc.) and force a few re-calibrations on reality.

Think about Europe being forced to deal with the reality of a definite calendar deadline when they will be living in the shadow of lunatics with nukes; and very high quality and reliable Us made ones at that. If not for the forcing function that would put on Israel to take them out once and for all (as we all hope), it would be rather fun to watch Europe's and other nation's sentiments and cooperation with the US instantly improve. Perhaps this would get Europe to pull its head out of the sand and get around to working aggressively with the US to force real regime changes in Iran very soon rather than later. After-all, political extortion is orders of magnitude less impacting as nuclear extortion but its the exact same mechanism. And I think Europe and others, for their own good, are in need a little refresher lesson on the power of "extortion"; they seem to have forgotten the the lesson from the Nazis. Perhaps this benevolent extortion will freshen their memories of what they are going to be living with very soon unless they start cooperating with the USA and accelerating toward a permanent solution very soon.

So, I say its time to put an end to the crap over there in the Middle East once and for all. If we move out sooner rather than later we still have the option to do it without killing millions of people and contaminating large geographic regions with nuclear fallout. However, in a few years the economic and human life costs to confront Iran becomes a no-go stalemate that anyone can see must eventually creep to an Armageddon showdown. But in this case the devil thinks its God and the bad guys think they are the good guys. In fact Iran has stated it wants Armageddon since they feel they are the good-guys working for God. So, in the face of this insanity our only certain option really is preemption. But I don't understand why the old alliances are not being reformed right now to rid the planet of these lunatics or at least a few of their leaders.

If we delay too much longer and it gets to a level that Iran has nuclear capabilities, then the situation going forward must and will become global nuclear blackmail. That is, until the day comes that the west decides it can't live in the shadow of an extorting devil and it is forced to take the same path out of "principal" that Iran is on now - namely, suicide. Of course the rationale in the west will be that triage is better than total defeat and at least some part of the west will survive in extricating the cancerous Iran from the global corpus. Better to do that now while the tumor is just a puss festering annoyance before it grows and spreads...

TS
 
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