Urgent Message From Rennick
- Thread starter William Rennick
- Start date
keep posting ALL calls for the benefit of those who know how to trade as apposed to discarding accurate calls for those who require spoon feeding
MY, my, my what did I miss today? Well considering all my "swing" positions are still LONG (with a "cautious" bias) this late-August, low volume chop is keeping my accounts in neutral (with a bit of range).
So yeah, when the indexes jump 250 points it is whoo-hoo and when they tank 250 points at least my trading system is offering me "bleh" or no reaction of emotion.
When traders get back in the next two weeks I'll get the trend and make equity jump - but as for the rest of "y'all", I see the late summer is keeping many busy
.
What is AMAZING is that this is the one thread that seems to have a bit of cred. AND YOU ARE MIXING IT ALL UP. Too bad you didn't take my accurate suggestion to keep tally of our ol' boy "Renny"!!
So you see...salvaging equity is arguably the MOST IMPORTANT aspect of tradiing - so yeah, when the MIGHTY "Ball" says stay on the sidelines - - you can bet if it is correct <b>it will make or break your system</b>.
Keeping losses to a minimum - hence NOT TRADING when the "Ball" is calling for NEUTRAL action <b><i>is oh, so key</i></b>. So gentlemen and ladies. . .what is so wrong about tallying correct and wrong short or long bias calls AND tallying correct or wrong neutral calls???
Oh yeah, because 90% of the traders in ET land think getting more right than wrong is the way to be a successful trader, lol.
:eek: 
Pays3n$e
So yeah, when the indexes jump 250 points it is whoo-hoo and when they tank 250 points at least my trading system is offering me "bleh" or no reaction of emotion.
When traders get back in the next two weeks I'll get the trend and make equity jump - but as for the rest of "y'all", I see the late summer is keeping many busy
.What is AMAZING is that this is the one thread that seems to have a bit of cred. AND YOU ARE MIXING IT ALL UP. Too bad you didn't take my accurate suggestion to keep tally of our ol' boy "Renny"!!
So you see...salvaging equity is arguably the MOST IMPORTANT aspect of tradiing - so yeah, when the MIGHTY "Ball" says stay on the sidelines - - you can bet if it is correct <b>it will make or break your system</b>.
Keeping losses to a minimum - hence NOT TRADING when the "Ball" is calling for NEUTRAL action <b><i>is oh, so key</i></b>. So gentlemen and ladies. . .what is so wrong about tallying correct and wrong short or long bias calls AND tallying correct or wrong neutral calls???
Oh yeah, because 90% of the traders in ET land think getting more right than wrong is the way to be a successful trader, lol.
:eek: Pays3n$e
I think you should keep the tally of neutral calls in the results, but to make it mean anything, you need to define what a successful neutral call is. You can't play baseball if you don't know how to score a run (i.e. runner makes it home).
Define objectively what a valid neutral call is. Is it +/- 50 pts from the call time, is it +/- 25pts? If it's set at +/-50 pts, then a winning neutral call is when the Dow has a change of +/-50 pts from the call time. If the dow increases > 50 pts, or drops >-50 pts then the call is wrong.
Whatever the definition is, it doesn't matter. Just define it and keep it consistent.
A vague moving target can always be twisted to the user's advantage (whether he/she's a supporter or oppononent of the "Ball").
Define objectively what a valid neutral call is. Is it +/- 50 pts from the call time, is it +/- 25pts? If it's set at +/-50 pts, then a winning neutral call is when the Dow has a change of +/-50 pts from the call time. If the dow increases > 50 pts, or drops >-50 pts then the call is wrong.
Whatever the definition is, it doesn't matter. Just define it and keep it consistent.
A vague moving target can always be twisted to the user's advantage (whether he/she's a supporter or oppononent of the "Ball").
Someone merely needs to quantify what Flat is and then come up with an agreed upon formula to judge the call,then we keep a collective eyeball on Beansie. Make sure he keeps his thumb off the scale of justice.
Quote from contrary:
You're the one whose cred is on the line. You can't say that a call is both weak and flat, like you did for your PM call today.
I'm openly stating that my records will now only be for strong and weak calls, no neutrals. Nothing wrong with that. Try to fire me if you want, you never hired me in the first place.
But you are free to post your record if you don't want me to. You've already shown that you do keep track.
You've got to be kidding...
The market can only do 3 things - go up, down, or sideways.
Why is correctly calling sideways not a legit call? Can you correctly call when it is going to be a sideways market?
Why is that less hard to do than the other 2?
No logic, no thinking. No wonder....
suggest flat = a % of range rather than set number of points as daily ranges change. somewhere under 30% ?
The master keeps rolling along..
http://www.nypost.com/seven/0824200...s_black_box_fund_figures_on_a__125796.htm?dbk
http://www.nypost.com/seven/0824200...s_black_box_fund_figures_on_a__125796.htm?dbk
I guess I didn't explain myself well. I understand that a flat call can be valuable to keep you from trading or letting you know to close out a position. However, say the serivce is judged to be 60% accurate, but that's because 100% of its neutral calls are right, 40% of its strong calls are right and 40% of its weak calls are right (assuming equal portions of those calls). It's not a profitable service, but our judgement is going to say it is.
OTOH, say it calls a lot more flats than you need, enough to bump the accuracy of the flat down to 20%, but its strong and weak calls are 80% accurate. We're going to judge it to be 60% accurate, not exactly something you'd want to follow too closely. But, in reality, it would probably (provided the losers aren't huge compared to the winners) be a great service, it just happens to tell you to sit on your hands a little too often.
OTOH, say it calls a lot more flats than you need, enough to bump the accuracy of the flat down to 20%, but its strong and weak calls are 80% accurate. We're going to judge it to be 60% accurate, not exactly something you'd want to follow too closely. But, in reality, it would probably (provided the losers aren't huge compared to the winners) be a great service, it just happens to tell you to sit on your hands a little too often.
I think the solution, which a couple people suggested, is to provide a breakdown of the calls.
Keep a tally for the Strong calls.
Keep a tally for the Weak calls.
Keep a tally for the Neutral calls.
It's easy to know if the Strong or Weak calls are correct. But I tried getting Rennick to agree to a formula on how to evaluate a Neutral call, and he skirted the issue. That's why I didn't want to keep track of the Neutrals anymore, Willie would just complain whenever I say one is incorrect. Also, if the point of a Neutral call is to preserve capital, then one could argue that a Neutral call is NEVER WRONG.
Keep a tally for the Strong calls.
Keep a tally for the Weak calls.
Keep a tally for the Neutral calls.
It's easy to know if the Strong or Weak calls are correct. But I tried getting Rennick to agree to a formula on how to evaluate a Neutral call, and he skirted the issue. That's why I didn't want to keep track of the Neutrals anymore, Willie would just complain whenever I say one is incorrect. Also, if the point of a Neutral call is to preserve capital, then one could argue that a Neutral call is NEVER WRONG.