Quote from riskfreetrading:
That is how RFT make his calls, at the level of one minute.
Let us see if Bill will match the 100% success rate of RFT. We will see if price will beat your call over the next 6.5 trading hours.
Where that beancounter guy? Could you please start the counter for the beans of bill?
Bill: did your RFT-style call survive or not? I do not have the chart next to me.
Here are your probs of survival due to luck only:
(0.5)^(number of minutes that elapsed since your call at 3:15PM).
Count the number of minute between your call to the time when your bottom 1-minute level call got violated (if the market already got you) or when the market will get you.
Now what most people do not realized is that the probs for somone to be nailed using 1-minute level calls as extremely high.
For 10-minutes, it is 1 in a thousand. For 20-minutes, it is one in a million. For 40 minutes it is one in a billion.
Should I keep counting...
RFT nailed it for 6.5hours and more, for a large sample. Imagine his probs for him to be right based on luck only.
If your RFT-style call managed to service till the close, you had only 1 in a billion chance and you made it, which is not a small feat!
If you survived for less than that 40-minutes you might still be in the top of the world if you can repeat it and beat the luck only probs.
RFT-style are the ultimate timing of market.
Re-read my adaptation of Mac's quote. I will hit them:
"Where they ain't", is peanuts compared to "where, AND WHEN, they ain't".