Quote from xflat2186:
Simply put, selling options late on a Friday wont net you the weekends decay since the market will start pricing days ahead earlier in the day Friday. Therefore youâre assuming all the risk for the short options over the weekend without receiving the benefit of the time decay in your favor over the weekend.
Geopolitical risk is a simple concept too. You can pain any number of scenarios which would make the markets open significantly down, meaning the SPX opening down ah la black swan event, but its not easy to find one which would force the market to open up huge. When youâre selling those naked puts you assume 100% of that geopolitical risk for very little protection or premium.
Implied volatility in the SPX has been dropping steadily for 10 days as evidenced by the VIX, if you were interested in selling some vega ( implied volatility ) why do it now with the VIX at under 19 when you could have sold it with the vix 24 or more not long ago?
Oh, you are absolutely correct! I have been doing it during the whole week (look at my posts). But I cannot afford to do too many contracts at once. I needed to spread them around, therefore, I use each 10 point price levels to get into some of my constructs. I somewhat disagree with you about the weekend stuff. I have been doing it for 15 years or so. But the rest of your comments makes sense.
