1. Leverage
2. Coincidence
These uptick discussions almost always omit the impact that the margin restrictions of Regulation T, which accompanied the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This gave the Fed the power to set margin rates.
Since then, overnight margin leverage for retail investors / traders has been no higher than (2.5 to 1) and as low as (1 to 1). It currently stands at (2 to 1).
Prior to that the Fed had no role in margin rates. Before Reg T margin restrictions it was not uncommon for
stocks to be purchased with 10 percent margin, in other words (10 to 1) leverage.
Cutting leverage by a factor of at least 4 may have had more to do with establishing the 1938 - 1942 support floor than the uptick rule.
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Regarding coincidence - the news discussing subprime losses started to circulate around this time. As can be seen in the article below, by Nov. 2007 the issue of subprime losses is described as "spreading."
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Subprime losses hit Morgan Stanley, AIG
**November 8th, 2007**, 7:02 am - posted by Mathew Padilla, Reporter
Hereâs the latest on the spreading subprime losses from the Wall Street Journal todayâ¦
American International Group Inc. said it saw a 27% drop in net income and a $2.68 billion after-tax write-down of assets in the third quarter. And Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley, which recently became a lead player in underwriting subprime-mortgage securities, said it has taken a $3.7 billion hit, or $2.5 billion after tax, from its subprime exposures in the first two months of the fourth quarter.
Concerns about subprime exposure have battered the stocks of financial companies, pulling down the broader market. Both AIG and Morgan Stanley reported the results after markets closed yesterday. Morgan Stanleyâs announcement came after its stock price fell by 24% in the past five trading days and ***two analysts on Tuesday predicted the firm faced possible fourth-quarter write-downs of $3 billion to $6 billion.***
The two announcements showed that the pain from this summerâs credit crunch is widening out from the first small group of companies to be hit hardest â Merrill Lynch & Co., Citigroup Inc., and UBS AG â to include more and in some cases unexpected market participants.
While much of AIGâs business is providing insurance services to American companies, it also insured some market players against mortgage-related risks. And while Morgan Stanley raised its subprime profile with an acquisition last year, officials said the bulk of its losses came from wrong-way proprietary trading strategies, or bets with the firmâs own money.
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This definitely had more of an impact than the removal of the uptick rule.
The growing realization by the market re: the magnitude of institutional leverage with this stuff definitely had more of an impact than the removal of the uptick rule.