Starting from the top of the chart:
1.) RSI- The last two significant corrections (May and Feb), the RSI went to the 30 line. It was only when the RSI went to the 30 line was there a bottom to the market.
2.) MACD histogram- During the last two significant corrections, you can plainly see where the bottom was to be found and that was from -1.0 to -1.5
3.) Bollinger Bands- The market is no longer traveling in the upper channel.
4.) Volume- During the last two corrections, there was an expansion in volume and the bottom was found when it contracted. Notice how the volume is just as thick, if not thicker, then the last two corrections.
Conclusion- We are going lower from here. No bottom can be found until there is a bottom in the RSI, MACD and the volume has contracted. As well, no buying should be considered until the market gets into the upper bollinger channel.
The larger macro view is that the SPX cannot get above its old 2000 high so its pulling back. My calculations place the SPX at 1440 before any bottom can be found. Anything below that line and we will most likely get to 1100 assuming a 50% retracement of the advance of the SPX from its bottom in the 2002-2003 time period.
This is the start of a broad based correction. If there is no recovery at 1440 then the strategy will undergo a macro change. A turnaround at 1440 means another attempt at 1550 and a possible breakout.
1.) RSI- The last two significant corrections (May and Feb), the RSI went to the 30 line. It was only when the RSI went to the 30 line was there a bottom to the market.
2.) MACD histogram- During the last two significant corrections, you can plainly see where the bottom was to be found and that was from -1.0 to -1.5
3.) Bollinger Bands- The market is no longer traveling in the upper channel.
4.) Volume- During the last two corrections, there was an expansion in volume and the bottom was found when it contracted. Notice how the volume is just as thick, if not thicker, then the last two corrections.
Conclusion- We are going lower from here. No bottom can be found until there is a bottom in the RSI, MACD and the volume has contracted. As well, no buying should be considered until the market gets into the upper bollinger channel.
The larger macro view is that the SPX cannot get above its old 2000 high so its pulling back. My calculations place the SPX at 1440 before any bottom can be found. Anything below that line and we will most likely get to 1100 assuming a 50% retracement of the advance of the SPX from its bottom in the 2002-2003 time period.
This is the start of a broad based correction. If there is no recovery at 1440 then the strategy will undergo a macro change. A turnaround at 1440 means another attempt at 1550 and a possible breakout.