Update from Karen the Supertrader

[SimpleMeLike]

see where it says "See publication" below, you have made me aware that i need to fix the links tomorrow when i get time, then you can check back and download the articles. also in the metastock forum there are systems which i published that to this day are still profitable.

Oddball System 20th year anniversary - 5000 trades

Found the 1st OddBall system article for you here.

also feel free to search my 20 years of posting on this forum and the hall of fame section of this forum.

i think my independently audited and published track record is also on the forum but if it's not i can send it to you if you wish proof of my claims of profitability.

Hello MarkBrown,

Awesome read. Thank you for sharing.

Question:

1. What made you start develop trading systems?

2. Did you initially start trading discretionary or manually trading?

Thank you,

 

[MarkBrown]

Hello MarkBrown,

Awesome read. Thank you for sharing.

Question:

Thank you,

Question:

1. What made you start develop trading systems?

my failure as a discretionary trader

2. Did you initially start trading discretionary or manually trading?

i started off manually with indicators and it was a coin toss, "millionaire" -"not a millionaire" lol

so i started by having manual alerts and alarms for different common events - new highs, new lows, yesterday highs, yesterday lows, bond closing time, state of intervention time on and on all sorts of alerts and eventually i was able to wrap some of that in systems and have never looked back.

 

[TheDawn]

I didn’t mean that someone had to predict volatility with 100percent accuracy. In colloquial trading parlance, “predicting” means “taking a view.” Perhaps I should have been clearer.

OK but that's a given and is meaningless. I mean anybody who trades is essentially "taking a view". But to win and profit which is what we traders including Karen are trying to do here, you have to be able to predict, either direction only with stocks or direction + volatility in options' case with at least a fair amount of certainty otherwise you won't win. Then what's the point of trading? Just to throw away money? You are just saying this for the sake of winning an argument now.

 

[newwurldmn]

OK but that's a given and is meaningless. I mean anybody who trades is essentially "taking a view". But to win and profit which is what we traders including Karen are trying to do here, you have to be able to predict, either direction only with stocks or direction + volatility in options' case with at least a fair amount of certainty otherwise you won't win. Then what's the point of trading? Just to throw away money? You are just saying this for the sake of winning an argument now.

Apparently it’s not worth trading unless you can predict with 100percent accuracy but no one can; unless they can then they can make lots of money with options.

 

[TheDawn]

Apparently it’s not worth trading unless you can predict with 100percent accuracy but no one can; unless they can then they can make lots of money with options.

First of all, I never said "100percent accuracy". What I said, as shown below, was "with certainty". To me that is more than just "taking a view".

I said "if she really does have a winning strategy"

But the thing is, nobody would be able to determine with certainty the rich and cheapness of vol. Everything is all relative and depends on what happens in the future. If there is a volatility crush happens, even the current 20 IV will still be too rich but if there is a huge explosion in volatility, then even 100 IV is still too cheap. And that's where the excess return comes from. If everybody knows with certainty how much the market is going to move in T+1, then there will be no excess return. The options will give the same return as term deposits.

And second of all, I never said it's not worth trading but that it's hard to come up with winning strategies so she is just like any one of us, not any worse.

EXACTLY that's why no one really has any winning strategy and she's just like anybody selling options or option spreads.

I thought I was quite clear on what I said but I guess not.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Question:

1. What made you start develop trading systems?

my failure as a discretionary trader

2. Did you initially start trading discretionary or manually trading?

i started off manually with indicators and it was a coin toss, "millionaire" -"not a millionaire" lol

so i started by having manual alerts and alarms for different common events - new highs, new lows, yesterday highs, yesterday lows, bond closing time, state of intervention time on and on all sorts of alerts and eventually i was able to wrap some of that in systems and have never looked back.

Hello Mark Brown,

Thank you for the response.

Few more questions please.

1. How many trading systems/ideas did your program and back test that failed before you finally reached a trading systems/ideas with enough Edge to go live? For example, what is the ratio of Failed tested trading idea to good trading idea to bet money on?

Thanks

 

[CET]

It may just be me, but the pics of the OP and Karen make me think they would make a fine couple. Plus they have so much in common.

 

[topdog]

"I never lost money for my investors" ?

 

[The_Krakenite]

From what I recall from an interview, it was when someone else took her position in her fund that investors lost.

But, no one has written a definitive book... (I said definitive) on it.

 

[Pekelo]

If she never lost money for investors she must have the worst lawyers in history.