Up 20% YTD, is that good?

Is being up 20% YTD in FY2008 a good return?

  • The market is down 10%, so it's an exceptional return

    Votes: 27 37.0%
  • I've returned greater than 20% this year.

    Votes: 30 41.1%
  • Just being up this year is an accomplishment.

    Votes: 16 21.9%

  • Total voters
    73
Quote from slapshot:

I'm curious as to what your motive is for starting this thread - are you trolling for more funds or just looking for an ego stroke?

And what return have you averaged over 5+ years? One year doesn't mean anything and it's not even over yet.

Both, and I wanted to see what the poll results would say.
 
Quote from musclemoney:

Yes, I wouldn't want the added stress with a "lumpy 12%" vs. a smooth 10%. Buffett says some good stuff, but this wasn't one of them.

Yeah, probably not one of his best.
 
Quote from crgarcia:

Max drawdown?
Risk?

If max DD and risk are moderate, yes 20% is a very, very good return.

20%/y are nice, reallistic returns for the sophisticated investor. How many banks/bonds pay you even 10%, after all?

Unlike those 5% per day stupid posts so common here at ET.

On the DD the returns relative to the market would like like this:
DD % Return %
PTQQS: 21.5% 81% for the entire system
NAZ100 20% -10% from March 20th 2007 estimated

This is how I stop to think about it.

Sharpe is 1.3 for the monthly values when you dig into the advanced stats.
 
Quote from Mike805:

1. You currently show a 21% drawdown with a 53% annual return. That is a 2.5-1 risk ratio which is a little low IMO. Personally, I'd like to see a 3-1 minimum for risk versus reward.

2. Your monthly drawdowns are too high. Investors in funds/systems do not want large down months. Better to lower the monthly vola in exchange for lower returns.

3. In conjunction to point 2, your monthly variance is much to high as well. The swings are just too significant to deal with. Your 20% profit for the year seems to have come from 1 or 2 months.

4. ONLY 51 trades so far... your system is still a baby... lets see 100 at least!

Overall, you have an OK edge, but, nothing that would impress serious money. The $8.5 mil you're asking on C2 is a bit laughable as you have 1.5 years of track record on a site that, IMO, is amaturish at best. I say this with firsthand experience, I have one of my systems on C2 and have experienced issues with the website that illustrate Matthew's lack of initiative in terms of providing a high quality trading advisory service. PM me if you want the link to the system, this particular system is intraday only, has a max DD of 7% and currently on a path for a yearly return of 25%, I use low leverage though and this particular system is up about 10% so far this year trading only SPY shares intraday at 2-1 leverage. The monthly vola is reltively low. I personally think these kind of numbers are fairly easy to do and not worth anything near $8.5 mil as you may believe. Besides, what's to stop you from trading it up to that size anyway? Are you looking for exposure? If so, I think you should try a different route than C2... that's just my opinion though.

Mike

Edit: I forgot to mention that I find your comment about intraday systems being BS on C2 informative concerning your trading experience... my system is not BS and it is intraday. Again, someone with your background should know better than to make grossly wrong claims like that...

Hi, Mike:
Per the edit: you know what the problems are, and it doesn't apply to all of them. Some of the autotraders can't even get routed to the right station for the best fills. Persistent is specifically what comes to mind, and for a more long term case that supports what I'm saying, extreme-os, I think has been debunked.

I'll pm you in a second, but currently I feel I'm at a lull. I'll catch a big move sooner or later. I think the long term APR is around 120%, and it'll just take 1 10% win that makes 20% to get up to 80% about, then we'll be at your mark.

Per 2: you can scale down.
 
If I could produce a consistently profitable system (not!:D ), and sell it for 8.5mm, I'd say "wire the funds to ____ _____."

After that, I'd contract with the buyer to have him/her trade $500,000 of my account while the rest is spread out among:

5-10% Oil and Gas Direct Participation providing quarterly income as well as a 3-5 to 1 bang when the properties are sold in 5-7 years. (CHK is the likely buyer at about 60% of the ask, which would yield a 3-5 to 1 return if NG averaged a VERY conservative $6.60 over the next 5-7 years. Can you imagine if NG averages $9.00 over the next 5-7 years?!?! WOW!)

5-10% Private ALL CASH non-traded RIETs providing monthly income

5-10% Equipment Leasing program providing a 9.65% monthly distribution, as well as a 180% projected return WITHOUT looking forward at rising inflation and rates, which make the investment a hedge, providing a bigger bang. (This one is what I would call "right" for the current environment going forward. I couldn't think of better timing without going back to the Carter administration.)

30% in a program similar to the one I personally run which is 18-25 equities/etf's with covered calls written on about 50-60%, and puts on EVERY position.

30% in a long/short equity program.

5% Managed Commodities.

5-20% cash depending on market conditions, and if "all cylinders are firing." If all cylinders are firing, more into the markets. If not, we hold more cash.

Results= living comfortably!


I'm sure there will be some guys here (probably me too) who are willing to put 5-15k in beau's automated program(s), and do well, posting the results along the way.
 
Quote from musclemoney:

Do you drive a taxi in a Mexican border town, or are you using strange drugs? Maybe both?

your the one who's on drugs mate. I just made a comment so if you dont like it you can get lost.:p

I was saying that the money management rule is not all its cracked up to be. Entries on your trades are the most important thing and if this is right then you dont have to worry about stop loss or mooney management as you will always make money.

Check out my trading blog if you wish and you'll see how well i do on oil.

:D

I dont make a lot per day, about £200 but i only need £50 to live on so the rest is mine and as i spreadbet (the sensible way) i dont have to pay tax so what i make is all mine.:cool:
 
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