Unsolved Mysteries: True Debt Levels of Various Countries

C

Covertibility

For some reason I'm awake at 2AM googling the debt level of Greece when I happen to stumble across this:


Is Greek government debt really 177% of GDP?



So if Greece's debt levels aren't that bad and if the Greeks are really running a budget surplus, then there is no need for QE? So then Draghi takes his foot off the easing pedal, the Euro soars, the dollar sinks, Germany faces higher unemployment along with a slowing economy, etc..etc.. No wonder why the Jerries are against the accounting change.

So is Martin Wolf correct to assume in the comments section that the debts of Japan and Germany would disappear too? What about the rest of the PIIGS?
 
Oh good god...

Firstly, Greece is running a primary budget surplus, which isn't quite the same thing as a headline surplus. QE doesn't really have anything to do with Greece. In fact, ECB QE specifically doesn't include GGBs. The Germans are against the accounting change for an entirely different, but very simple reason. The accounting methodology mentioned benefits indebted and distressed sovereigns the most. If you apply it, you'll probably end up with Greece looking better than Germany in terms of this adjusted government debt-to-GDP.

And no, it's not correct to assume that this accounting method will "fix" countries like Japan. JGB yields are so low, the benefit of discounting future liabilities will be minimal. It will definitely be more helpful to countries in the Eurozone whose bonds are trading at higher yields.
 
Last edited:
If you change the way the debt is computed, the behavior of the region changes dramatically. If we were to assume that on average the PIIGS debt levels were as low as 50% of GDP after the accounting change, then this adjustments could result in a booming southern Europe as the PIIGS move from austerity to fiscally expansionary programs. This boom would spill over to the rest of Europe, because of trade, which would then nullify the need for QE.

As for Japan, it would provide a little more light as to what their true debt levels are, given that most of their debt is intragovernmental.
 
Covertibility said:
If you change the way the debt is computed, the behavior of the region changes dramatically. If we were to assume that on average the PIIGS debt levels were as low as 50% of GDP after the accounting change, then this adjustments could result in a booming southern Europe as the PIIGS move from austerity to fiscally expansionary programs. This boom would spill over to the rest of Europe, because of trade, which would then nullify the need for QE.

As for Japan, it would provide a little more light as to what their true debt levels are, given that most of their debt is intragovernmental.
More...
I am reasonably certain the Germans might have a bit of an issue with this whole idea...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top