Bought UsdJpy @ 80.52
Account Value 210k
Account Value 210k
Universal Trend Trading
- Thread starter luckyputanski
- Start date
Bough GbpChf @ 1.4563
Sold Platinum @ 1562.25
Account Value 218k
Silver short, Platinum short, Gold out. Is it the end of bull market in metals?
Sold Platinum @ 1562.25
Account Value 218k
Silver short, Platinum short, Gold out. Is it the end of bull market in metals?
It's a great falacy to think that a gigantic sample size will make your system more robust. I think this will actually make your real time results worse, because your system is more fit to the past, even though it's the only reliable guide to the future. Remember, there are many paradoxes in this business... that's why only 5% do it correctly.
Have you read 'Trading in the Zone' by Mark Douglas? There are many truths in the book you must come to grips with. If you have lost more money on the last 20 trades than you have made, you dont have an edge. Don't take my word for it... think about it. Every moment in the market is unique, new traders come in, old traders leave. Nothing is repeated 100%. Because of this uniqueness, I am pretty sure if you keep trading this mechanical thing, you will go to zero... Just like most mechanical systems they will break.
The people making money trading systems are doing HFT arb, have loads of quants/programmers, and have server collocation with the exchange.... They capitalize on fractions of a second and the programmers are constantly revising and monitoring their algos so that they don't lose. They don't have losing weeks.
The traders that amass fortunes trade descretionarily. You should trust me as I am in the -50%+ club as well currently. Look through my journal. I have seen what it's like to trade well. You never will lose 50% if you truly have an edge.
Fell asleep.
That's simply not true.
Bla bla bla... Yes, "Trend following is dead". Again.
That depends on your risk. I had bigger DD in backtest.
I trade long term commodities, been profitable past eighteen years using nearly the same method till 1998 when I started using options to hedge for a few days to help smooth my equity curve, but the method itself has not changed. Now I am NOT a trend follower, I sell certain contract highs/buy certain contract lows, it might take me over 30 tries to find the top/bottom, but cause of options, not always a loss on overall position. I sometimes stay in trades for years except for rolling over. If I didn't backtest for many decades, I would feel uncomfortable doing so.
Some markets I tested over fifty years of data, I don't find it more robust but nice to know if patterns repeat. You do have new/old traders come and go, but all have same emotions which drives the markets. You do have to tweak rules in the beginning but as the years add up, you cover every possibility of events that can go wrong and have a rule in place. Everything is repeated 100% of the time, it might just take longer.
Everyone's "edge" has a different meaning, it evolves as we get older. At first I thought it had to do with entries, then about protective stops, then money management, then it is having a well backtested method and now my edge is I am retired and could walk away if I wanted. You play the game long enough, not much seems unfamilar.
When one is doing longer term trading, drawdowns are part of the method, you should know what to expect 99% of the time, just have to learn to accept it. I never got into any of the "mental" books, to me they explain why you are a loser, comes down to an enormous amount of work, very long hours and repeating same actions.
Very open mind you have. Never said TF is/was/willeverbe dead.
Well, of course an uknown online alias won't change your mind, but maybe time and less money will... That's usually what does it for most people.
GL
Not to mention you must have a price trend to make any money...
If you are comfortable attempting to catch bottoms by all means.... hedge with options and don't expect a high winning trade percentage.
Not sure about everything being repeated 100%. I guess it depends on what you are referring to and your perspective.
Of course edges are different for everyone. There are as many edges as there are traders.
You have to understand why you are a loser to become a winner.
Closed UsdChf with loss -1264
Account Value 214k
Account Value 214k
Actually, I backtest and trade concentrating on minimal losing percentages and my losing percentages considering what I do is less than most would think using options as hedge. But everything does have a trade off, much higher funds needed to accomplish positions, always a prem on the options I buy.
High/Lows in pricing always repeat, but it might take 50 years for it to take place. But anything dealing with electronics has certainly changed fees, speed and cost of data.
My edge now is quite different than most, I don't need to trade any more, have built up enough to last my lifetime. But can only travel so long, don't play golf and I am good at this, might as well steal from the Commericals now.
There are a host of reasons people lose, most mental, but also pure being lazy. Many plan their vacations longer than concentrate on how to trade. You really have to work your arse off and backtest forever.
Closed wheat with loss -800
Account Value 212k
2011 eleven was awful for my markets, but surprisingly it was perfect for Polish stock market:
Account Value 212k
2011 eleven was awful for my markets, but surprisingly it was perfect for Polish stock market: