UNG

Quote from PAPA ROACH:

Just for the sake of a better investment in my opinion, let's take the $102,000 of money that 8,000 shares of UNG represents and put it in these.

$34,000= 1,589 shares of CHK $21.40

$34,000= 1,433 shares of HK at $23.72

$34,000= 1,003 shares of STR at $33.88

These will trade with a bull market in natty, AND collect the forward curve. UNG loses on contango and will not make a cent in the major spread between Sep and Jan.

We will compare these investments on your timetable.
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So, either today or Monday will be the 1 month mark, (Sunday is the 30th).

Let's tally up the score:

Buying 8,000 shares of UNG at $12.75 against $11.13 close =-(12,960.00). This is actually very lucky that it is not a much further loss; UNG ran out of shares and is closed-ended for the moment and is trading a generous 16.5% premium to the underlying (it should be trading at $9.29 if they make more shares available, netting a loss of -$27,680.00)


Buying 1,589 CHK at $21.40 against $23.59 close =+$3,479.91
Buying 1,433 HK at $23.72 against $21.91 close =-($2,593.73)
Buying 1,003 STR at $33.88 against $34.90 close =+$1,028.16

Net gain of $1,914.34 against a UNG net loss (lucky only) of -$12,960

Again, UNG is the shittiest way to play natural gas. Wait until UNG rolls from October futures into November, it's currently over a one-dollar contango spread. OUCH!!!!!!
 
Natural gas WILL double.. the question is from what level will it double? No one knows that so you simply have to have a very long term time frame and you MUST be nimble and leave yourself a lot of room to add if it goes lower.

Now how to play Natural Gas? I still think UNG is the best way even though I think the contango makes it a TERRIBLE vehicle and you're paying a huge premium, however, I'd rather be in UNG simply because I don't want individual stock risk when trying to play a commodity. In my opinion if Natty goes up 100%, UNG should go up minimum 40-60% and I'm more than fine with that kind of profit given there really is no alternative.
 
Bombs Away! Just broke 10 decisively. 5 % a day for the shorts. When comes capitulation?!!? At this rate, 50 cents a day down, it will be out of business by the end of the month. Free Natural Gas for everyone, hooray, hooray!!!:D
 
Quote from limitupmike:

obvioulsy reduces...nav..but the fund is priced at a premium.. due to this...arbing will keep prices in line...also even if you peronally have one contract and you want to roll forward.. you would have to sell your long then rebuy the next month.. also losing on the difference due to contango.. if you look at the ngit held up nicely.. all of this talk if new lows is great.. i jut keep buying.. natty can run 25 % higher in a week especially a these prices


also the fund i s no longer in september .. it has contracts in october which did not get hit as hard as sept.
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You CLEARLY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.

Anyone that has an ounce of brain cells can see that the upcoming "roll" in October is gonna be costing the UNG Fund a full $1.00 given the contango.

Duh!
:D
 
Quote from limitupmike:

I am still buying and building a sizeable position.. no matter what .. nat ga will go up evenually.. yes there are better ways to use my capital.. but I am married to this one..literally.. i can't get rid of it and i keep throwing money at it!
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Yeah, you sure are MARRIED to it, and I suspect that the DIVORCE will cost you a small fortune. Get ready to move out of your house and into a small garage-style studio apartment.
 
Quote from limitupmike:

well pascal.. i certainly am glad i have been continuing to buy ung.. nice rally today.. this is just the start.. they will stick it to the shorts over the next week in ung!
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Yeah, nice rally all right!:eek:

It's down 20% since your last post on August 20th, and it's still trading at a horrendous PREMIUM to net Asset Value. Good luck when that premium collapses when new shares are issued. :D

http://www.unitedstatesnaturalgasfund.com/index.asp

Some people have NO IDEA what they are investing in. No idea.
 
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