Uncertainty and Risk in Short-Term Trading

Quote from Rocko1:

Why do you believe quantitative analysis doesn't work in the long run?
That's exactly how I've been making money the last year playing short term trades. Is there something superior you'd suggest to hedge against uncertainty?
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You will never know the exact probability of any trade you are about to undertake. The balance of probability may be in your favor, but you will never have the exactitude you alluded to in your earlier post. The future is fuzzier than that.
 
Quote from bastiat8:

Not sure if that's what Joe meant, as I know Joe and know quite well his trading style, which is basically momentum trading. But I am frankly surprised that you guys can't figure out such a simple strategy :) Here it goes:

When you are a short-term momentum trader, you tend to focus on one trade at a time, as momentum trading requires constant attention, and active trade managment. In other words, you just can't afford to track and trade too many markets at the same time, so what you do is commit most of your money, energy, and time to one high probability trade.

Now when you are trading long-term, it's a lot less time consuming so you are able to track more markets and trade more markets, by allocating less to each one, and basically taking advantage of diversification. So there you have it, you reduce risk by diversification, and you can do that because you have plenty of time to find trading opportunities. Hmmm...... What a crazy idea, LOL.... Come on guys, and you actually want to trade for a living?!?!?! Need to think a little sometime!

Fun Trading! :)

B

P.S. Don't forget to check out ebay ;), I am selling 7 Joe Ross books on there! Just type "joe ross" into search, and narrow it down to books only. You can buy all of his books at a much better price than you can find anywhere else...
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Bastiat said it better than I did. My hat's off to you Bastiat and I apologize for not making more clear what I was trying to say.

Just so you guys know, I day trade live in front of audiences in Italy, Germany, Czech, Brazil, Uruguay, South Africa, and Spain. I simply don't have the time to sit on forums answering a lot of questions. I trade almost every day. Last year was the first time in many years that I traded in shares. I didn't like it and am back to day trading futures. I found the stock market so boring that I no longer trade there nor do I invest there. I have found much better ways to invest.

I appreciate that people put up with my posts even though I find little time to discuss them. I offer them as my way of giving back to the markets which have given so much to me.

You can pick on them, tear them apart, make snide remarks, or whatever. That is your choice and so far the Internet enjoys great freedom. I am grateful for that.

I will post here as long as they allow.

By the way, my website is not full of commercials. We do not allow anyone to advertise on our website or in our forums. There is a great deal of free information on my website and you are welcome to it.

However, in order to maintain a website we do have to sell things. We have to support a staff of people. They want to be paid.

It might also interest you to know that I make nothing whatsoever from our website. It all goes to pay the help. Additionally, most of the money I make trading and tutoring goes to support my own prison ministry and the ministries of others.

Now you know!

JR
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

"... You will never know the exact probability of any trade you are about to undertake. The balance of probability may be in your favor, but you will never have the exactitude... The future is fuzzier than that.
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Exactamundo!
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

You will never know the exact probability of any trade you are about to undertake. The balance of probability may be in your favor, but you will never have the exactitude you alluded to in your earlier post. The future is fuzzier than that.
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Yeah you're probably right;
It doesn't really matter as long as we all make money. Some of us simply perform better trading the short term, like how Joe mentioned he likes day trading better despite his belief that it's "riskier". I don't mean any disrespect Joe, I think it's great that you do prison ministry and believe you're a good man.
 
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