Ultra

[murrica]

<img src="http://i.imgur.com/8e82prW.png"><br>

Short and sweet post here.

Disclaimer: Any market recommendations are for me alone, and you are responsible for your own trading decisions, risk management, and losses. To clarify: This post does not contain any trading recommendations for you. It is for informational purposes only.

Long ultra bond futures from these levels. If I had huge, deep, prop fund or hedge fund type pockets, I might use a time-based strategy. Build a position slowly over the course of 1-2 weeks.. add if working, bail or reduce if not.

In my case, I might zoom in to pinpoint an entry and achieve separation (i.e. get on the right side of the trade). Since we are still below that downtrend line, one has to consider the possibility that we see a bit more downside (which, if it hits that lower line, could be an opportunity to go long).

Good trading to all.

 

[murrica]

Ultra T-Bond: 143'00 to 143'16 is a heavy area of interest in the next 4-16 hours.. currently on upside breakout watch pending behavior at those levels.

 

[trade2live]

why is ZB called "ultra" T bond futures now ?

 

[murrica]

Oh, this thread is about the 50 year aka Ultra T-Bond, not ZB.

Watching here from 143'00 to 143'20.

 

[murrica]

Failed thus far.

Looks like support from now until 138'00 or so. Long 138'27 (current price), Add 138'00, Stop 137'00.

I advise you to not follow this trade idea. This post is not trading advice and is for informational purposes only. You are responsible for any losses that probably will occur from this trade idea.

edit: the 138 entry and 137 stop are time-dependent, re-evaluate every 24 hrs

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from trade2live:
----ZB....
----"ultra"....
----bond futures....

It can usually be known as "UB".

 

[murrica]

Quote from nazzdack:

It can usually be known as "UB".

UB right

<img src="http://i.imgur.com/rGQtJja.png">

 

[dumb_mother]

i'm going to continue to trade with a short bias in all treasuries intraday until we break through trendlines to the upside- we just dismally failed about a week ago when we finally broke the downtrend for the zn- we should have popped at least another 20-30 tics higher than that high last week. instead we just fell like a rock and broke back below that trend line.

you might be right but i'd rather buy as we are rallying and sell as we sell off and right now we are still going down.

 

[murrica]

Very solid advice. It just looks like this last push down from 145 (breakout failure with no momo as you pointed out) to now is very controlled and has a decent probability of an upside move from here. Anyway, that's just my style, your input is greatly appreciated and I'd again advise passer-bys to avoid my ideas without serious consideration of the risks and probabilities.

Quote from dumb_mother:

i'm going to continue to trade with a short bias in all treasuries intraday until we break through trendlines to the upside- we just dismally failed about a week ago when we finally broke the downtrend for the zn- we should have popped at least another 20-30 tics higher than that high last week. instead we just fell like a rock and broke back below that trend line.

you might be right but i'd rather buy as we are rallying and sell as we sell off and right now we are still going down.

 

[murrica]

Quote from murrica:

Failed thus far.

Looks like support from now until 138'00 or so. Long 138'27 (current price), Add 138'00, Stop 137'00.

I advise you to not follow this trade idea. This post is not trading advice and is for informational purposes only. You are responsible for any losses that probably will occur from this trade idea.

edit: the 138 entry and 137 stop are time-dependent, re-evaluate every 24 hrs

While this trade idea is working thus far, and while the chart itself looks pretty decent for a move from here to 140'00 and beyond in the short term, it is likely wise to await the outcome of FOMC at 2PM EST from the sidelines. For the meeting and the hours that follow, support levels go all the way down to ~137'05. Stop approximately one handle below that. However, I have a small hunch that we do not get down there, and so linear retest level is 138'07 - 138'10.

Similar S/R analysis can be directly applied to ZB, which does look fairly clean as well.

Recommend avoiding basing any trading decisions off of my posts, particularly since counter-trend ideas are tough plays. This is not trading advice nor a trading recommendation. You are responsible for your own trading decisions and any losses that may occur.

Good trading to all.