UBS make ridiculous market prediction

Cutten · Dec 3, 2008

The worst finance sector recession for 75 years, and this guy (whose role is completely useless and meaningless) still has a job? The man is pure overhead, dead wood that needs chopping.

Short UBS.

xflat2186 · Dec 3, 2008

Quote from gnome:

ET is a decently representative microcosm of all traders... a few smart guys and good traders, lots without a clue... many run off at the mouth.

Well said. The anonymity of the internet is the big difference. People here run their mouth and ego because they can hide behind their computer.

JCVR · Dec 3, 2008

I have a recent research report from UBS (earlier this week) which says they expect a 10-20% increase in most indices in 09. Now all they need is a prediction of a loss and they will have all their bases covered.

If you guys haven't figured it out by now, none of these analysts have a clue what they are talking about. This is akin to putting a neutral rating on a stock with a price target 25% above it's current value.

drukes1234 · Dec 3, 2008

So if I were to tell you that by the end of 2009 the S&P would be at 1275, you would say that's crazy? A 50% gain in 2009 is a very reasonable prediction (we got a 20% rally in one week last week) -- I don't know if they're right, but it's not that ridiculous of a projection

JCVR · Dec 3, 2008

the gain isn't out of the question but their target is nothing but a guess.

What if we crash and hit 500 later this month then gain 50% from there? won't look so good will it...

richrf · Dec 3, 2008

Quote from NY_HOOD:

Stocks to rise in â09, UBS says; S&P 500 may gain 53% - Bloomberg.com

This is certainly more optimistic than my own hypothesis, but I am looking for a 50% run up from 7500 which would bring us to 11000. Very doable. The impetus will be a combination of historical fiscal spending (which will not cause inflation, because of the low velocity of money), leveraged monetary policy that will backstop most A+ securities, and a gradual reallocation of money from Treasuries (2% return for 10 years is really quite ridiculous, and is yet another bubble).

Chart action is very favorable, but I think there will be many bumps along the way, so a trader has to watch very carefully, so as not to be bushwacked. Right now, I am accumulating for a major move up (not theBig move to 11000), that may be very short-lived - or not. I will let the price-volume action dictate my trading.

richrf · Dec 3, 2008

Quote from drukes1234:

So if I were to tell you that by the end of 2009 the S&P would be at 1275, you would say that's crazy? A 50% gain in 2009 is a very reasonable prediction (we got a 20% rally in one week last week) -- I don't know if they're right, but it's not that ridiculous of a projection

I agree. It is far more probable, given monetary and fiscal policy, that the next big move is up rather than down. 13000 seems very optimistic - but I will take it if it comes. :-)

Landis82 · Dec 3, 2008

Quote from NY_HOOD:

After being so wrong in 2008,they are coming out with this ridiculous prediction! why make such a forecast,has'nt abby joseph cohen taught them anything about wild predictions?

Who cares?
How does this effect your TRADING???

The S&P just rallied 30 handles in the last hour . . . did you catch any of that?

Bogan7 · Dec 3, 2008

Quote from NY_HOOD:

Stocks to rise in â09, UBS says; S&P 500 may gain 53% - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg.com reports global stocks will withstand a "full-blown" recession and surge in 2009 as cheap valuations and efforts by governments to restore confidence in the financial system lure investors back to equities, UBS said. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index may rally 53% to 1,300 by the end of 2009, David Bianco wrote in a note dated yesterday. The New York-based strategist, who a year ago predicted a 2008 advance of 16% for the S&P 500, is now forecasting a gain that would exceed the index's best annual performance on record.

after being so wrong in 2008,they are coming out with this ridiculous prediction! why make such a forecast,has'nt abby joseph cohen taught them anything about wild predictions?

Probably worth listening to more than the ET pikers that spend their pathetic lives doing. At least he is doing it as part of his job.

richrf · Dec 3, 2008

Quote from Landis82:

Who cares?
How does this effect your TRADING???

The S&P just rallied 30 handles in the last hour . . . did you catch any of that?

I think it does matter. Underlying longer term trends certainly bias shorter trends. I would rather trade with longer trends than against them - but of course, I am stress adverse. Health matters to me as much as profits - actually more. :-)