U.S. stocks seen falling in coming week
- Thread starter lloyd111
- Start date
I am also leaning bearish, but my indicators are suggesting neutral, or a small rally to come before we start to plunge seriously. I use volatility indexes and put call ratios. Currently VIX suggests mixed/neutral, could suggest drop in stock if VIX dropped a little i.e. small rally or consolidation. Put/call ratios are very high suggesting a short covering rally could come if someone pushes the right buttons 
so I am treading carefully until a clearer picture emerges. I am bearish because the charts of most stocks look extended and in need of a drop. My signal is explained briefly here:
http://tinyurl.com/2hxdlf
so I am treading carefully until a clearer picture emerges. I am bearish because the charts of most stocks look extended and in need of a drop. My signal is explained briefly here:
http://tinyurl.com/2hxdlf
Well, here's a different take:
"Cheapest Stocks in 20 Years Signal Bull Market as Economy Slows"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aTQvi3GCHXD0&refer=home
"Cheapest Stocks in 20 Years Signal Bull Market as Economy Slows"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aTQvi3GCHXD0&refer=home
earnings yield? Since when do they start looking at earnings yield vs. bonds? Last I checked all my standard texts compared dividend yields
From sep 2006:
http://www.businessweek.com/investo...0060905_559905.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories
"What's more, the S&P 500 dividend yield averaged nearly 4% in all years since the mid-1930s and averaged nearly 6% during the 1940s...
Things look a little different these days, of course. The yield on the "500" has averaged only 1.6% thus far in this decade, after averaging only 2.4% during the 1990s. "
"As of February 10, 2007, the S&P index was at 1438 and had a Price Earnings Ratio ("P/E") of 18.0 based on actual trailing reported earnings and a current Dividend yield of 1.81%.
http://www.investorsfriend.com/S and P 500 index valuation.htm
-----------------------------------------------------
Boy, that 1.8% dividend yield is looking like a screaming buy compared to the 1mo 5.25% tbill risk free yield. Notice how they also compare it to the lower 10 yr. yield. That growing inversion on the yield curve is also a screaming wildly bullish screaming buy signal on equities. Welcome
to the pro forma equity yield vs. bond report.
From sep 2006:
http://www.businessweek.com/investo...0060905_559905.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories
"What's more, the S&P 500 dividend yield averaged nearly 4% in all years since the mid-1930s and averaged nearly 6% during the 1940s...
Things look a little different these days, of course. The yield on the "500" has averaged only 1.6% thus far in this decade, after averaging only 2.4% during the 1990s. "
"As of February 10, 2007, the S&P index was at 1438 and had a Price Earnings Ratio ("P/E") of 18.0 based on actual trailing reported earnings and a current Dividend yield of 1.81%.
http://www.investorsfriend.com/S and P 500 index valuation.htm
-----------------------------------------------------
Boy, that 1.8% dividend yield is looking like a screaming buy compared to the 1mo 5.25% tbill risk free yield. Notice how they also compare it to the lower 10 yr. yield. That growing inversion on the yield curve is also a screaming wildly bullish screaming buy signal on equities. Welcome
to the pro forma equity yield vs. bond report.