U.S. Recession

gnome · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from poyayan:

"... If global growth story is true, then we will export our way out of recession and a falling dollar just like everyone else...

Well, not quite. We can't ALL be net exporters. (Just like investments... somebody has to be the bag holder.)

With Asia being such a huge exporter, somebody has to be the net importer. Isn't that OUR function in the world economy?.. even if we have to perpetually borrow more and more money to buy the goods?

gnome · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from newbunch:

Those growth figures are 'real' GDP growth rates, not 'nominal.' In other words, they are after inflation.

A 4% nominal GDP growth rate and 2% inflation rate results in a 2% real growth rate.

The Fed's estimates take us nowhere near a recession.

That's right... THE FED'S ESTIMATES... Do you believe them? I sure as Hell don't!

ASusilovic · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from gnome:

Well, not quite. We can't ALL be net exporters. (Just like investments... somebody has to be the bag holder.)

With Asia being such a huge exporter, somebody has to be the net importer. Isn't that OUR function in the world economy?.. even if we have to perpetually borrow more and more money to buy the goods?

I will do my very best to support U.S. economy ! I will pass by before X-Mas for some shopping in NYC !

poyayan · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from newbunch:

Those growth figures are 'real' GDP growth rates, not 'nominal.' In other words, they are after inflation.

A 4% nominal GDP growth rate and 2% inflation rate results in a 2% real growth rate.

The Fed's estimates take us nowhere near a recession.

Really... in that case, is the wage growth number inflation adjusted too? Any reference?

stock_trad3r · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from gnome:

That's right... THE FED'S ESTIMATES... Do you believe them? I sure as Hell don't!

Does it matter if you believe the numbers? It is what it is.

gnome · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from ASusilovic:

I will do my very best to support U.S. economy ! I will pass by before X-Mas for some shopping in NYC !

That's what we need. Team players.

midlifeguy · Nov 21, 2007

Is it growth if the US Dollar is crashing 20-70% against all the World Currencies? We are in a Recession already.
Kudlow is a moron.

Quote from poyayan:

Really... in that case, is the wage growth number inflation adjusted too? Any reference?

newbunch · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from gnome:

That's right... THE FED'S ESTIMATES... Do you believe them? I sure as Hell don't!

I don't believe anybody's estimates. But that doesn't mean we should misinterpret them.

newbunch · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from poyayan:

Really... in that case, is the wage growth number inflation adjusted too? Any reference?

The headline "personal income" figures are reported as nominal figures: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
But GDP headline is 'real': http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

newbunch · Nov 21, 2007

Quote from newbunch:

I don't believe anybody's estimates. But that doesn't mean we should misinterpret them.

I should revise that. I believe their estimates are close to reality. What I meant is that I don't believe anybody forecasts, which is what those figures are.