U.S. October New-Home Sales Fall 3.2% to a 1.004 Million Pace
- Thread starter S2007S
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Quote from hels02:
LOL! You are very very young, with no experience in real estate aren't you?
Can you illuminate us, then, hels? What is going to happen ?
You obviously know nothing about real estate. DOM are up. Inventories are way up. Sellers have to be much more realistic when pricing than 1-2 years ago.
As I recall you only seem to buy (go long) stocks. You may make $$$ longer term but a trader will make money every day playing both sides (long & short).
Real estate is crashing around everyone's ears and has been for the last year. Unlike the stock market, moving houses take a bit longer than clicking a button. Every single month you have continuous carrying costs in the form of mortgages, maintenance, utilities, taxes, insurance.
Investors are what drove the increase for the last 5 years by 'flipping', and at this point, no one in their right mind is going to buy an investment property (not home, INVESTMENT property with excess capital, in order to make money), when inventories are way up all over the country, with prices dropping as people become desperate to sell.
Current prices are way beyond the possibility of recouping this from rental income. Investors have been and are continuing to bail.
By comparing the real estate market to the stock market, ie, cup and handle, there's an implication that it's poised for an imminent upswing. There is no imminent upside unless you're an idiot or are talking a minimum 5 year, but closer to 10 year time frame.
If you're time frame is 5 years of dropping or flat prices, where you LOSE thousands to tens of thousands of real dollars in daily carrying costs... UNLIKE the stock market where you can walk away if you get tired of watching price fluctuations, while waiting for an upswing, then it's a cup and handle.
You MUST see annual increases to make money in real estate or your carrying costs will break you. In even a flat market, you've lost your shirt.
It's an extremely naive thing to compare, leading to the assumption that he's never owned any real estate to be claiming that the real estate market is doing well.
Investment real estate has to go up around 20% a year to break even on your costs every year (depending on purchase price and costs). It's been going down, stuck investors are getting crushed.
Assuming you buy an investment property right now at a good deal, how long would it take you to sell it again in this market? What will it cost you to hold it while you wait? Closings take a minimum of 30-60 days due to appraisals, inspections and financing in most cases. What can you sell it for?
Anyone who's invested in real estate can do these numbers in seconds in their head, and not one would be naive enough to say the real estate market is on its way up, or be stupid enough to 'invest' right now (again, not counting personal homes).
What's going to happen? If you buy real estate as an investment right now, you will lose your ass, so only the stupid would do it. Was that an adequate explanation?
Yes, it is very articulated. But, like the stock market, where individual stocks can behave contra-trend of the overall market, I also believe that there will be discrepancies within the housing market, by State, by range of house price, etc..Here in Utah, the Real Estate is still doing good, with some price catch-up with the rest of the nation.
But we will see. I learned a long time ago that even very well articulated opinions, are just, well, ....opinions.
But we will see. I learned a long time ago that even very well articulated opinions, are just, well, ....opinions.
I can't wait for all those stupid HGTV and TLC home shows to go off the air.