U of Pitt Doc - Corona Less Deadly than feared

[gwb-trading]

Just spitballing some rough numbers. Number of actual infected is probably 20 million. Of that 20 million a million or so need treatment meaning 95% need no in patient treatment. Of that million 5 to 6 percent will die. That means only 5 percent or so of the infected need to hospitalized and 95 percent of those hospitalized survive. Throw out all those who were near dead to begin with and you end up with a number which doesn't even come close to justifying what we have done to our economy. We're probably talking about less than ten thousand who died of Covid with no preexisting conditions and most of them living in NYC and New Jersey. In essence we're destroying our country to try amd save about 2500 people in the other 48 states. Toss the large urban areas and what do we have? Couple hundred people across the nation. I hope they were something special because tens of millions are going down the toilet as a result

As I noted earlier....

While cities like New York may have a higher infection rate; most counties in the U.S. have a fairly low infection rate. Some have no infections at all.

The reasonable estimates based on sampling indicate that the U.S. as a whole only has a 2% to 3% infection rate maximum for COVID-19 currently. This is 6.6 million to 9.9 million people maximum have been infected across the United States as of today.

The hospitalization rate for positive cases appears to be above 20%. Here is a NYC snapshot for mid-April.

Here is a Minnesota article showing 21.8 percent of coronavirus patients in the state have required hospitalization - https://ktoe.com/2020/04/28/percent...pitalized-and-in-icu-decreasing-in-minnesota/

Seeing how quickly COVID-19 is spreading in rural states with many deaths, and seeing that the number of deaths in hotpsots like prisons and meat processing facilities is increasing rapidly -- your estimate that only 2500 people will die in 48 states is probably way off. That number will probably be exceeded in the next two weeks.

Clearly Trump's preferred estimate for only 60,000 deaths before August is off. The actual number of deaths in the U.S. is above 68K right now - it probably will quickly rise above 100,000 in the next few weeks. most of these deaths will come from new hotspots not old hotspots like NYC.

The value of these 100,000+ deaths against the economic impact of jobs can be debated. It should be noted that most states are following a plan to open up in May and get people back to work in stages.

There are many states already with more than a couple hundred deaths.

 

[southall]

Clearly Trump's preferred estimate for only 60,000 deaths before August is off. The actual number of deaths in the U.S. is above 68K right now - it probably will quickly rise above 100,000 in the next few weeks. most of these deaths will come from new hotspots not old hotspots like NYC.

They just ordered another 100,000 body bags.
It doesnt look like it will take long to fill those up.

 

[CaptainObvious]

Big fucking deal, it's been like two months and many people are getting government subsidies.

You act as if this is nothing more than people being asked to stay home over a long weekend and binge watch some shit on Netflix. Thousands of people have lost everything, all their lifes work wrapped up in a business they owned. Tens of millions out of a job, many who haven't seen a nickel of that government subsidy, many more for whom that is nowhere near their income level. You're too shortsighted and far too stupid to comprehend the long term taxation nightmare this will take years and years to unscramble. This may be nothing more than an inconvenience to you. Frankly that's all it is to me at this point, but to millions upon millions of others this is a disaster from which they may never recover. And for what? A democratic campaign strategy. I guess it's easier than finding a fucking candidate worth a shit. You dopes only had four years for that which you wasted on excuse making and chasing Russian ghosts.
Idiot!

 

[CaptainObvious]

As I noted earlier....

While cities like New York may have a higher infection rate; most counties in the U.S. have a fairly low infection rate. Some have no infections at all.

The reasonable estimates based on sampling indicate that the U.S. as a whole only has a 2% to 3% infection rate maximum for COVID-19 currently. This is 6.6 million to 9.9 million people maximum have been infected across the United States as of today.

The hospitalization rate for positive cases appears to be above 20%. Here is a NYC snapshot for mid-April.

Here is a Minnesota article showing 21.8 percent of coronavirus patients in the state have required hospitalization - https://ktoe.com/2020/04/28/percent...pitalized-and-in-icu-decreasing-in-minnesota/

Seeing how quickly COVID-19 is spreading in rural states with many deaths, and seeing that the number of deaths in hotpsots like prisons and meat processing facilities is increasing rapidly -- your estimate that only 2500 people will die in 48 states is probably way off. That number will probably be exceeded in the next two weeks.

Clearly Trump's preferred estimate for only 60,000 deaths before August is off. The actual number of deaths in the U.S. is above 68K right now - it probably will quickly rise above 100,000 in the next few weeks. most of these deaths will come from new hotspots not old hotspots like NYC.

The value of these 100,000+ deaths against the economic impact of jobs can be debated. It should be noted that most states are following a plan to open up in May and get people back to work in stages.

There are many states already with more than a couple hundred deaths.

And again for the umpteenth time. Without knowing exactly how many of those were dead men walking to begin with we really have no idea of the real threat this is to the broader population. I don't care if there are a million dead, if they were all at deaths door to begin with it's a meaningless number as it relates to the actual mortality rate risk to everyone else who is otherwise healthy. I'll keep asking until I get an answer. How many, exactly how many of the dead and dying had no preexisting conditions? Someone must know that number since they're counting every single body as if all of life on earth depends on it. The fact that this exact number is impossible to find tells the real story. It's so unbelievably low that if it were made public a coast to coast riot would occur.

 

[southall]

And again for the umpteenth time. Without knowing exactly how many of those were dead men walking to begin with we really have no idea of the real threat this is to the broader population. I don't care if there are a million dead, if they were all at deaths door to begin with it's a meaningless number as it relates to the actual mortality rate risk to everyone else who is otherwise healthy. I'll keep asking until I get an answer. How many, exactly how many of the dead and dying had no preexisting conditions? Someone must know that number since they're counting every single body as if all of life on earth depends on it. The fact that this exact number is impossible to find tells the real story. It's so unbelievably low that if it were made public a coast to coast riot would occur.

Trump was checkmated, he didn't have the luxury of choosing to do what Sweden has done.
His hand was forced. He really had no choice but to lockdown. Otherwise all these deaths (and the death count would have been higher than 68,000 now) would be placed on his hands.

But now we need to lift the lockdowns. And if the death rate grows 10 times higher in 18 month. Everyone needs to accept that is the cost to save the economy and livelyhoods.

 

[gwb-trading]

Oh well... just throw grandma under the train... plus the sick, homeless, and everyone else your local city politico desires to add to the list...

California City Official Ousted After Saying Old, Sick And Homeless Should Die In Pandemic
The Antioch City Council voted unanimously on Friday to boot Ken Turnage II, chairman of the city’s planning commission, from his post.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ken-...-official-covid-19_n_5eae8657c5b69a7955190545

A city official in Northern California has been booted from his post after suggesting that old, sick and homeless people should be left to die during the coronavirus pandemic.

Ken Turnage II, chairman of the city planning commission of Antioch, located 35 miles east of Oakland, said in a Facebook post last month that “the sick, the old, the injured” should be left during the pandemic to meet their “natural course in nature,” The Associated Press reported.

“The World has been introduced to a new phrase Herd Immunity which is a good one,” he wrote in the since-deleted post. “In my opinion we need to adapt a Herd Mentality. A herd gathers it ranks, it allows the sick, the old, the injured to meet its natural course in nature.”

Turnage added that “homeless and other people who just defile themselves by either choice or mental issues” should also be allowed to perish as this “would fix what is a significant burden on our Society and resources that can be used.”

(More at above url)

 

[southall]

Oh well... just throw grandma under the train... plus the sick, homeless, and everyone else your local city politico desires to add to the list...

Boomer grandma had a mostly good life. Much better than her depression & war era parents.
The unfortunate sick are going to die anyway.
The homeless, well Covid will put them out their misery. They most probably want to die anyway..

 

[gwb-trading]

Boomer grandma had a mostly good life. Much better than her depression & war era parents.
The sick were going to die anyway.
The homeless, well Covid will put them out their misery. They most probably want to die anyway..

Well seeing the adverse effect COVID-19 is having on minorities -- it is just a matter of time until some demented politician proposes that it is good for urban revitalization and gentrification.

 

[jem]

that is 100 percent detritus rewrite and bullhsit rewrite of history.

We told you back then you don't make public policy decisions based on the ratios being presented at the time.

We told you (what you are now calling the case fatality) was a bullshit number.
We told you that you needed to know how many people had been exposed before you could make good public policy.
.
A few days later Stanford Experts came out and said the ratios being bandied about were useless and you can not make good decisions without more data. I posted that linked weeks ago.


But, nevertheless Governors and Fauci made decisions off that WHO data and the Italy data... decision off the case fatality rate... Decisions you have been supporting with your insufferable propaganda and bullshit.

You don't get to say this doctor is confused now that you have two names for the ratios.

The issues is that the wrong ratio was used in the past... and this doctor is hammering that point home.

He is not confused... you were. And, apparently you still are on this subject.


Finally, we don't have a vaccine. So many of us are likely to get the virus.
Hiding from the Virus is not the right policy for the low risk groups... unless you can eradicate it. So everytime you tell how quickly it spreads... you are showing how stupid it is support a lock down of low risk groups. You are telling us we can't hide from it... but you think hiding from it is good policy.

You manifest a complete lack of the ability to think in systems. You cant eradicate this disease if it spreads so easily. Do you understand that?
We will need a vaccine or hope we get herd immunity

Can you and your fucking leftist fool buddies fucking understand that yet?

Let's get to the math....

CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 67,595 / 1,165,953) = 5.79% Case Fatality Rate in the U.S. for COVID-19
The Case Fatality Rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1% (in a bad flu season).

In the new briefings from Governor Cuomo he estimated the Infection Fatality Rate in the U.S. is between 0.5% to 0.8% for COVID-19. The Infection Fatality Rate for the season flu is 0.025%

WHO estimated back in January based on Wuhan information that the Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 was between 2% to 3%. They later revised this value to 3.4%. The most recent projection from WHO for Case Fatality Rate is 5.8% (which the U.S. is close to).

Yearly is clearly talking about Infection Fatality Rate when he mentions his figures; not Case Fatality Rate. Let's read his own information in the article.

"Yealy raised a hypothetical situation, in which roughly three percent of Allegheny County residents were infected. That would mean an estimated 36,000 people contracted COVID-19. As of Thursday, the novel coronavirus death toll for Allegheny County is sitting at 94. That puts the death rate closer to .25 percent than current estimates as high as seven percent. “There is a big difference between 0.25% mortality and 7%,” he said."

Obviously Yearly is making an improper comparison between Infection Fatality Rate versus Case Fatality Rate. Yearly is making a number of assumptions in what he states is a "hypothetical situation" - he uses this to extrapolate the number of infections for Allegheny County residents (which has no evidence backing the case numbers) to arrive at a number of people he believes are infected in the county.

He is using this math to support the opening of the local hospital for elective surgeries. Obviously as the chair of the hospital he is desperate to get revenue rolling again. He is merely "talking his own book" and being disingenuous so he can re-open the hospital doors to all patients with the focus on making money.

 

[jem]

you seem to be oblivious to fact that they are warning us about a second wave because the shutdown does not get Covid under control.

The hospitals are so empty they have laid off doctors and nurses.
That is a major screw up.. it means we tanked the economy when we could have governed with partial shutdowns. Not to mention all the people who are suffering or will die because they did not get the treatment they needed.

You are oblivious to the fact that shutdown does not control Covid... it only delays it. Please understand what I just wrote.
You will begin to understand that its not impatience or selfishness...

its that it is so fucking dumb to think that it was worth shutting down the economy and causing all this death and pain and economic destruction... and yet there is nothing to show us that it did anything outside of NY. And we warned you all about that.


Let me make this clear to your lefty brain.

The shutdown is definitely causing harm. Massive financial harm. Its causing death. Future death from diseases and cancers undiagnosed. So we know its doing harm... but we don't have science or data to show its doing any good. (given the hospital beds are open)

There is no data showing it is doing anything positive for low risk groups.
None... zero zip.... no science or data has been produced.
In part... because they have no proof we will not get it the minute we get out.
And if we don't get it bad... then it shows we should not have shutdown because we already had more of it and some of us had immunity.

There is no reason for the shutdown if the hospital beds are empty.
Do you comprehend that simple statement?
No scientific reason or data to shutdown for Covid for low risk groups if hospital beds are empty.

"Empty" hospitals is a good thing.

You seem oblivious to the fact that safety measures are the main reason the hospitals are not full. You know what else keeps hospitals more empty ? Jack up health care costs as much as you can and let millions of people go uncovered. Oh right, already a reality in the US. So check on that too.

More then 60K dead in the US, still not fully under control, and you are on here daily arguing that's its not a bad situation everybody get out there and mingle again. Get a clue man it's an absurd take on things. Are you really so devoid of patience and self control that you would risk the lives of thousands of people ( low end ) to satisfy your own personal needs and wants ?