that is you new favorite trick for hiding reality.
1. First of all not every one conforms to your nomenclature.
2. I have noticed many public officials use the structure -crude rate and fatality / death rate. I have seen multiple govt and public health officials use that structure.
So its very unlikely this doctor confused Case Fatality and Infection rate.
I am quite confident he knows far more about this than you.
3. I don't think he confused anything. He meant what he said. The ratio of death to infections is very low vs the original estimates.
4. You once again offered a red herring to confuse the issue.
The data shows the fucking virus only kills a very small percentage of those exposed...
It really does not matter what name you give that ratio.
So seriously stop making such disingenous arguments and understand we would all be better off if we got all the stats and data on the table... and then did a proper balancing of damage caused by the shutdown vs damage saved by the shutdown... using the data we have.
Its my thesis... there is very little damage saved by the shutdown for low risk groups because after the shutdown the virus will still be here. Hence all the warnings about the second wave.
But you don't have substantive arguments where you have to balance damage saved vs damage done. You just post scary headlines and mostly make red herring type arguments. ..
So you come back with this bullshit about nomenclature, Your argument is not really useful. The ratio is real.. the concept is real.. the name given to it less important.
Sure it would be best to have consistent use... but useful data is far more important than the name of the ratio.
Let's get to the math....
CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 67,595 / 1,165,953) =
5.79% Case Fatality Rate in the U.S. for COVID-19
The Case Fatality Rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1% (in a bad flu season).
In the new briefings from Governor Cuomo he estimated the
Infection Fatality Rate in the U.S. is between 0.5% to 0.8% for COVID-19. The
Infection Fatality Rate for the season flu is 0.025%
WHO estimated back in January based on Wuhan information that the Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 was between 2% to 3%. They later revised this value to 3.4%. The
most recent projection from WHO for Case Fatality Rate is 5.8% (which the U.S. is close to).
Yearly is clearly talking about Infection Fatality Rate when he mentions his figures; not Case Fatality Rate. Let's read his own information in the article.
"Yealy raised a
hypothetical situation,
in which roughly three percent of Allegheny County residents were infected. That would mean an
estimated 36,000 people contracted COVID-19. As of Thursday, the novel coronavirus death toll for Allegheny County is sitting at 94. That puts the death rate closer to .25 percent than current estimates as high as seven percent. “There is a big difference between 0.25% mortality and 7%,” he said."
Obviously Yearly is making an improper comparison between Infection Fatality Rate versus Case Fatality Rate. Yearly is making a number of assumptions in what he states is a "hypothetical situation" - he uses this to
extrapolate the number of infections for Allegheny County residents (which has no evidence backing the case numbers) to arrive at a number of people he believes are infected in the county.
He is using this math to support the opening of the local hospital for elective surgeries. Obviously as the chair of the hospital he is desperate to get revenue rolling again. He is merely "talking his own book" and being disingenuous so he can re-open the hospital doors to all patients with the focus on making money.
