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The mercury thermometer wasn't invented until the 1700's.
U.N. says by the year 2000, nations will be wiped off the face of the Earth due to Global Warming
- Thread starter peilthetraveler
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The mercury thermometer wasn't invented until the 1700's.
Correct, but there is good proxy data for temps before that including tree rings, ice pack analysis etc. The following chart shows these various reconsructions.
The "hockey stick" describes a reconstruction of past temperature over the past 1000 to 2000 years using tree-rings, ice cores, coral and other records that act as proxies for temperature (Mann 1999). The reconstruction found that global temperature gradually cooled over the last 1000 years with a sharp upturn in the 20th Century. The principal result from the hockey stick is that global temperatures over the last few decades are the warmest in the last 1000 years.
Figure 1: Northern Hemisphere temperature changes estimated from various proxy records shown in blue (Mann 1999). Instrumental data shown in red. Note the large uncertainty(grey area) as you go further back in time.
A critique of the hockey stick was published in 2004 (McIntyre 2004), claiming the hockey stick shape was the inevitable result of the statistical method used (principal components analysis). They also claimed temperatures over the 15th Century were derived from one bristlecone pine proxy record. They concluded that the hockey stick shape was not statistically significant.
An independent assessment of Mann's hockey stick was conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (Wahl 2007). They reconstructed temperatures employing a variety of statistical techniques (with and without principal components analysis). Their results found slightly different temperatures in the early 15th Century. However, they confirmed the principal results of the original hockey stick - that the warming trend and temperatures over the last few decades are unprecedented over at least the last 600 years.
Figure 2: Original hockey stick graph (blue - MBH1998) compared to Wahl & Ammann reconstruction (red). Instrumental record in black (Wahl 2007).
While many continue to fixate on Mann's early work on proxy records, the science of paleoclimatology has moved on. Since 1999, there have been many independent reconstructions of past temperatures, using a variety of proxy data and a number of different methodologies. All find the same result - that the last few decades are the hottest in the last 500 to 2000 years (depending on how far back the reconstruction goes). What are some of the proxies that are used to determine past temperature?
Changes in surface temperature send thermal waves underground, cooling or warming the subterranean rock. To track these changes, underground temperature measurements were examined from over 350 bore holes in North America, Europe, Southern Africa and Australia (Huang 2000). Borehole reconstructions aren't able to give short term variation, yielding only century-scale trends. What they find is that the 20th century is the warmest of the past five centuries with the strongest warming trend in 500 years.
Figure 3: Global surface temperature change over the last five centuries from boreholes (thick red line). Shading represents uncertainty. Blue line is a five year running average of HadCRUT global surface air temperature (Huang 2000).
Stalagmites (or speleothems) are formed from groundwater within underground caverns. As they're annually banded, the thickness of the layers can be used as climate proxies. A reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperature from stalagmites shows that while the uncertainty range (grey area) is significant, the temperature in the latter 20th Century exceeds the maximum estimate over the past 500 years (Smith 2006).
Figure 4: Northern Hemisphere annual temperature reconstruction from speleothem reconstructions shown with 2 standard error (shaded area) (Smith 2006).
Historical records of glacier length can be used as a proxy for temperature. As the number of monitored glaciers diminishes in the past, the uncertainty grows accordingly. Nevertheless, temperatures in recent decades exceed the uncertainty range over the past 400 years (Oerlemans 2005).
Figure 5: Global mean temperature calculated form glaciers. The red vertical lines indicate uncertainty.
Of course, these examples only go back around 500 years - this doesn't even cover the Medieval Warm Period. When you combine all the various proxies, including ice cores, coral, lake sediments, glaciers, boreholes & stalagmites, it's possible to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures without tree-ring proxies going back 1,300 years (Mann 2008). The result is that temperatures in recent decades exceed the maximum proxyestimate (including uncertainty range) for the past 1,300 years. When you include tree-ring data, the same result holds for the past 1,700 years.
Figure 6: Composite Northern Hemisphere land and land plus ocean temperature reconstructions and estimated 95% confidence intervals. Shown for comparison are published Northern Hemisphere reconstructions (Mann 2008).
Paleoclimatology draws upon a range of proxies and methodologies to calculate past temperatures. This allows independent confirmation of the basic hockey stick result: that the past few decades are the hottest in the past 1,300 years.
Are you excited to see Happer's report?
Dr. Happer will set them free
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/03/dr_happer_will_set_them_free.html
How will Dr. Happer and his panel set the world free? At the moment, the Marxist plotters bang on about the 97% scientific consensus on global warming. They have created a sealed edifice of lies and have maintained it assiduously. After Dr. Happer's report is released, the mantra of "Are you denying the science?" will be turned on its head.
Global warming has been a state-sponsored religion, with its priesthood funded from the public purse to the tune of $2.5 billion a year in the U.S. alone. The priests of that cult will be plucked off the public teat, and the memory of what they preached will fade. That frabjous day can't come soon enough.
If you drive around old neighborhoods in new orleans you will find that virtually all the structures built before the levy have their occupied floor levels above sea level. The builders new exactly where sea level was. They added a safety factor and built above that level. These building have never had water above their occupied floors even in New Orleans' worst floods!
Anyone would be a fool to build with an occupied floor level below sea level, wouldn't they? But of course people do. Anyone would be a fool to think that the sea level would never change, wouldn't they? Well you could build a levy. But a levy is a dam to those on one side, and a barrier to those on the other. Suppose it rains. It could. It has. You better figure out how you're going to get the rain from your side of the levy to the other side.
Maybe it's a good idea to count on it raining once in a while. Builders build on dry sunny days, and sell on dry sunny days. There is a school gym in my town next to a creek. Someone thought the thing to do was to develop and pave over much of the land to the West of that gym. The creek flows West to East right by that gym. The drainage from developed property West of the gym flows into that creek. Sometime when it rains especially hard to the West of the gym, the creek overflows its bank next to the gym. The Basketball Court floor gets replaced whenever that happens. Someone thought it would be good idea to build a levy around the gym to keep the creek from flowing into it. They didn't bother to put any pumps on the gym side of the levy. Now when it rains especially hard, the creek no longer flows into the gym. Instead the rain collects behind the levy and flows into the gym. There is such a thing as human greed combined with human stupidity. It's a bad combination.
Sometimes its a nice dry day and we build too close to the waters edge not ever thinking that someday there may be a bad storm. Sometimes we build on porous soil through which water can rise up. Sometimes we build on land that is sinking. Sometimes it rains and the rain has no where to go except into our living room. We need to think about these things before we build, but we probably won't. We will blame our flooded living room on something other than the building codes, our builder, or our stupidity.
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I think that's a first! Does that mean I'm an idiot too?
Have you decided where you want to specifically live in Antarctica? Have you considered staking out land now?
Thats interesting about the gym. They were correct in building a levy to keep the stream out, but they need to to find a low point, hopefully that will collect all the rainwater, excavate a small pit filled with gravel and install one of these. This is single phase 220V and at 500GPM it will be overkill. You just pipe it through the levy into the stream. https://www.absolutewaterpumps.com/...ewage-pump-4bse502ss-4-520-gpm-5-hp-cast-iron
$2400 and $500 worth of excavation and wiring will beat replacing a hardwood gym floor every few years. Who the hell makes the decisions around there? They never built anything?
That is exactly, and precisely what was required, but was not done! I wish you had been here to act as a consultant for the school system. They could have saved many thousands.Thats interesting about the gym. They were correct in building a levy to keep the stream out, but they need to to find a low point, hopefully that will collect all the rainwater, excavate a small pit filled with gravel and install one of these. This is single phase 220V and at 500GPM it will be overkill. You just pipe it through the levy into the stream. https://www.absolutewaterpumps.com/...ewage-pump-4bse502ss-4-520-gpm-5-hp-cast-iron
$2400 and $500 worth of excavation and wiring will beat replacing a hardwood gym floor every few years. Who the hell makes the decisions around there? They never built anything?
I wonder what the chart would look like if we kept using Tree rings to predict what the temperature was in the last 100 years. Im not a climate scientist, but it's hard to believe you can tell what the average temperature was in any given year to a fraction of a degree by looking at tree rings.
Especially those 1000 year old trees.