Quote from moo:
Well, if you study the fundamentals of housing, you will find that it is very likely that house prices will fall quite soon and A LOT. Also that should trigger a recession, since the economy has depended on housing for so much and for a long time.
Only the speculators or those that grossly overpaid will be hurt. The average "Joe" or "Jane" will simply have to live longer in one spot to even out the equity. Even if there's a recession, only those that are overextended will get hurt. Now, we can argue if the average American is overextended or not (I think many are), but an all-out housing crash isn't going to happen. Housing prices will fall to a moderate pace and many will have to live longer in one spot. Real estate should, and historically has, returned around 5-10% (6-8% is very realistic). So those regions that have seen 30% appreciation rates will stagnate, but there's not going to be any bust anytime soon even if mortgage rates go to 10%. If anything there's a housing shortage in many key markets, appreciation will simply moderate.
As far as overall American wealth, the main topic, savings rates and wealth accumulation statistics don't accurately take into account appreciation. Retirement accounts aren't accounted for often either. Yes Americans live in debt, but there is "smart" debt and "dumb" debt. A mortgage is what I call necessary debt and real estate equity appreciation isn't accounted for in net worth statistics. The three SUV's in the driveway is "DUMB" debt.
Fact: The main source of accumulated wealth for the average American is their primary residence.
If you haven't over-leveraged against that investment, then you probably have seen a good jump in your net wealth the last 6 years. The problem isn't owning real estate, but tapping into that real estate's equity when it's inflated. Even if you have done that, you still will be alright more likely than not due to the fact that you will simply stay put longer than the average 3 years people spend in one spot.
Simply put, most statistics don't accurately account for wealth, its accumulation nor its appreciation.
"Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable."
Mark Twain
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Benjamin Disraeli