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Wow. You brought back a 4 month old thread apparently just minutes after Twitter reported earnings. I had no idea that I was living rent-free inside your head for the past 4 months.
Anyhow, yeah, I was expecting a bigger drop in daily active users than were reported, but as others pointed out, the user growth clearly slowed and most of the users that they gained were international, not US (6:1). US growth slowed down to the worst level since 2019 and given that lockdowns were still in effect during most of Q1, they should have been able to maintain their 2020 growth rate. They also issued negative guidance. But before you take your victory lap, realize that you were also wrong. If what you said was true -- that Trump was driving people from their platform, well, then by banning him and removing conservatives, all those sensitive people should have come back after the ban and spiked the growth rate. Or at least produced some return in activity and engagement to give Twitter the confidence to issue better guidance. So the logical conclusion of what you were expecting did not happen either. I probably overestimated the number of Trump supporters (or more generally people who don't like spending time on a platform that supports double-standard political censorship) who used Twitter and left. They probably weren't there in the first place. I guess that makes some sense. If you're a productive person, you won't spend a lot of time on Twitter as it is largely a waste of time. Same case with the late night shows. They attract a certain demographic.
Also, 99% of my previous post content in this particular thread had nothing to do with the twitter DAU prediction so after 4 months, you seem quite desperate to be vindicated on one of your points (although as I mentioned, even that didn't happen). But thanks for the rent-free stay.
Sorry, I thought this was a stock traders forum where Twitter earning would be something that those who had expressed an interest in Twitter earnings previously would talk about when they were released. If it makes you feel better to believe we all think of no-one but you....well there's a name for that condition.
Let's be perfectly clear here, you're still in pretty deep denial. You say "I was expecting a bigger drop in daily active users than were reported..." But in reality, there
wasn't a drop in daily active users at all. It went up significantly from the same quarter in 2020 and went up from Q4 2020. So the accurate version of what you just couldn't bring yourself to say is "I was expecting a big drop in daily active users but the number actually went the opposite direction, up".
And then the cop-out with "user growth clearly slowed and most of the users that they gained were international, not US (6:1)". First off, you do realize that the vast majority of Twitters mDAU are international, so of course the vast majority of the increase in mDAU is going to be international? In fact in percentage terms the growth of U.S. and international mDAU was pretty comparable. Not to mention the fact that again, you were predicting a significant
drop in daily active users and in fact it went up significantly
even in the U.S.! So again, let me fix that for you. What you couldn't bring yourself to accurately say is "I said "Twitter is about to take a huge hit in daily active users." and "Deciding to kill off up to roughly 50% of one's US subscriber base by exhibiting strong politically-inspired censorship is not a smart business decision unless you believe you can make up for that in some other way. ". But actually the number of active users actually increased, in the U.S. and internationally."
I don't know how in January you could be all about "Deciding to kill off up to roughly 50%" and now with a straight face claim it was really all about a slowing in growth of daily users all along? Listen to yourself for a second, that's pitiful!
And then we go with the fabrications that are just silly given that anyone can go back and read the thread. At no point did I say anything remotely resembling "that Trump was driving people from their platform, well, then by banning him and removing conservatives, all those sensitive people should have come back after the ban and spiked the growth rate." Quite to the contrary I, over and over because you were being obtuse, explained the idea that the people who decided to leave because Trump was kicked off may be at least partially balanced by people who would come back, but even so it might be too late. I then went on to talk about the difficulties involved in running a business, which you clearly have never done, when you face two bad choices. If I was wrong at all in that assertion it was that I didn't make it strongly enough, because obviously since the mDAU
grew after Trump was kicked off they must have more than balanced out those who left. While you again, were predicting "killing off up to roughly 50%" of U.S. users, which couldn't have been more wrong. And cut the "sensitive people" bullshit, really.
And of course there was your "parting shot" back in January "All of your statements about revenue are speculation. You don't really know how it will affect Twitter going forward. We have our own opinions, let's leave it at that." What did revenue do again? Now you're saying let's ignore that and talk about guidance instead? Seriously? We had an informed opinion and one severely clouded by a warped political viewpoint. One turned out to be correct and one dead wrong. One would have hoped you could take something away from that, but apparently not.
Finally you decide to go with the sour grapes of "If you're a productive person, you won't spend a lot of time on Twitter as it is largely a waste of time. Same case with the late night shows. They attract a certain demographic." Come on, could you lay on the hypocritical superiority complex bullshit any thicker, especially for someone who was previously implied they understood Twitter while anyone disagreeing with them did not? I guess you did correctly peg Trump as someone who was not productive and of "a certain demographic"; the dude spent more time on Twitter than anyone!
At least you answered the question about if you'd be able to learn anything from this, sadly the answer is no. Denial is more than just a river in Egypt I guess.
