TWTR at $49.64 ----buyout at $54.20 ----- Easy 9% ?

Rams Fan said:
TSLA is down 12% today. If $800 breaks then TSLA will probably fall back to $700, the February low, in a hurry.

If $700 breaks, what are the chances Musk's financing to buy TWTR actually closes?

Probably close to 0%. The fact of the matter is the probability is almost certainly already 0%, and that is exactly why TWTR's board voted to accept Musk's offer, i.e. call his bluff.

The market action in TWTR shares is suggesting, strongly, that traders do not believe Musk will actually succeed in taking TWTR private.

The TWTR board already knows this, and so they called Musk's bluff. A brilliant move because TWTR's stock price is going to continue to fall along with the rest of the market and eventually will decline well below its all time low price of $13.74. The TWTR board did not want to become Yahoo 2.0 by refusing a high offer only to watch as the bids for their stock collapse. Yahoo, in 2008, famously turned down MSFT's $40 Billion offer. 8 years later YHOO sold itself to to VZ for $4.4 Billion.

TWTR's board did not want that same type of mistake pinned on them.

Must will never own TWTR.
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i have the $60 2024 calls— they lost almost all their value in the past couple days. If this takeover fails those options should spike— good risk to reward. Doubled-down yesterday
 
Boards are often described as CEO rubber stamps but it’s more complicated than that.

In accepting the offer the board has said the long term value of the company is not 54.2. The stock will plummet to further depths of Elon walks away (the billion dollars isn’t that meaningful of a breakup fee).

Calling someone’s bluff means that you don’t expect them to go through. You think the board doesn’t expect elon to close the deal?

Rams Fan said:
The only job the board is concerned with saving is that of Parag Agrawal. Beyond that each member is concerned with his or her own reputation and maintaining an ability to wield influence.

Business is very much a game, and calling bluffs is in fact one part of it. Twitter is in a win/win position: If Musk closes the deal, then the board and the shareholders will be paid an undeserved and unexpected windfall. If Musk fails to close on the financing, TWTR gets a $1 Billion cash infusion.

However, there is nothing the board can do to keep the share price from plummeting along with the rest of the market. But at least as the stock price plunges the board doesn't have the added infamy of having tuned down a $44 Billion dollar offer as the market cap falls 90% from its current valuation over the coming quarters.

Brilliant gamesmanship by the board.
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"When one company chooses to buy out another in a stock-based acquisition, the acquirer generally seeks to gain 100% ownership of the target corporation. Corporate law typically allows the acquirer to gain full ownership of the target even if shareholders who in total own a minority interest in the target company oppose the acquisition. The required vote favoring the merger can vary depending on what's stated in the company's articles of incorporation. Some companies require a simple majority, while others require supermajorities of anywhere from two-thirds to 90% of outstanding shares.

When this occurs, the acquiring company pays objecting minority shareholders the same amount of cash, shares of the acquiring company, or a combination of both that those who favor the acquisition receive. As long as that compensation is deemed to be fair value for the stock, the recourse for the objecting minority shareholders is limited."

And no there is not a 0.0000000001% chance the price could go above offer price. What ridiculousness.
 
Rams Fan said:
TSLA is down 12% today. If $800 breaks then TSLA will probably fall back to $700, the February low, in a hurry.

If $700 breaks, what are the chances Musk's financing to buy TWTR actually closes?

Probably close to 0%. The fact of the matter is the probability is almost certainly already 0%, and that is exactly why TWTR's board voted to accept Musk's offer, i.e. call his bluff.

The market action in TWTR shares is suggesting, strongly, that traders do not believe Musk will actually succeed in taking TWTR private.

The TWTR board already knows this, and so they called Musk's bluff. A brilliant move because TWTR's stock price is going to continue to fall along with the rest of the market and eventually will decline well below its all time low price of $13.74. The TWTR board did not want to become Yahoo 2.0 by refusing a high offer only to watch as the bids for their stock collapse. Yahoo, in 2008, famously turned down MSFT's $40 Billion offer. 8 years later YHOO sold itself to to VZ for $4.4 Billion.

TWTR's board did not want that same type of mistake pinned on them.

Musk will never own TWTR.
More...

I'm not usually one to say "I told you so," but I was told in response to the above post that corporate "boards don't call bluffs."

Yes they do.

And TWTR's board called Musk's bluff, played him for the fool he is, and now they have him by a $Billion worth of the short hairs.

One would have thought that after the SEC slap down over the bogus "I have the cash to take TSLA private" tweet (he didn't), Musk might have toned down his bravado. But narcissists like Musk find it hard not to play the big swinging d***.

Once he pays for this little stunt, he might have no choice but to keep his trap shut.
 
Rams Fan said:
I'm not usually one to say "I told you so," but I was told in response to the above post that corporate "boards don't call bluffs."

Yes they do.

And TWTR's board called Musk's bluff, played him for the fool he is, and now they have him by a $Billion worth of the short hairs.

One would have thought that after the SEC slap down over the bogus "I have the cash to take TSLA private" tweet (he didn't), Musk might have toned down his bravado. But narcissists like Musk find it hard not to play the big swinging d***.

Once he pays for this little stunt, he might have no choice but to keep his trap shut.
More...
I have been reading about a different scenario. If the board chooses to sue Musk and it ends up in court, there is apparently some rule about gathering information in the discovery phase of a trial. This would force the board to divulge all the info on algos and associated metrics.

Its maybe similar to why the accused in a court case doesn't go up on the stand to give his side of the story as it opens him up to cross examination. So maybe its not as simple as the board suing Musk and getting their money without anyone digging deeper.
 
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