Two ways to go broke trading a market

I tried for seven years prior to 1992 of trading with the trend in commodities to no avail, it didn't work for me, I got in too late or got whipped around too much. So I thought about the Commercials, they didn't go belly up when they went short at highs or bought the lows, so I knew it was doable.

After much backtesting, one simple don't sell any high or buy any low in commodities, but I went over decades of charts and I found that extreme prices at highs/lows were my answer but using approx of a decade of chart. And using options as a hedge works well.

So to say "character flaw", I think not Sir.

Of course if you are inexperienced, uneducated and too lazy, you will not do well, whether you trade with or against the trend.
 
Top and bottom picking is fine if you do it selectively and have some kind of risk control. However, it is obvious IMO that there is more scope for wipe out here with a bottom/top-picking approach. The reason is that if you get it wrong in trend following, the trend reverses and hence you either get out or get short. Your whole methodology tells you to go flat or reverse. Thus the worst that can happen, if you follow your method, is that you get whipsawed and suffer many moderate losses.

With bottom-fishing, if you get it wrong, your method to some extent says the market is even cheaper so stay in or maybe even buy more. So one aspect of your method (the signal) says increase size, whereas the other (risk control) says reduce size and get out. A method where two important aspects are in conflict has much more chance of the "stay in" aspect winning out, especially if the trader becomes psychologically destabilized.

So, when a bottom or top-picker gets it wrong, they have a potential blowout. When a trend follower gets it wrong, they tend to just have a lengthy drawdown which gives them time to reduce their risk. In that respect, trading with the trend is safer, so long as you have a stop and aren't overleveraged.
 
picking tops in a downtrending market is easier than picking the bottoms,the market we are in now feels like it will go lower so psychologically there is less fear associated with picking tops,thus less mental energy expended,with tredlines as guides , you can see momentum shift and the dom go crazy,you can spot the turns,i just find it really hard to get long these days,i miss a lot of cash on the upside
 
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