Two questions regarding trend-following systems...

[jack hershey]

Quote from FlyingSoros:

Hi all,

I've read the heated discussion in the trend-following thread below and I have two questions:

1. Is there a way to judge the trend-friendliness of a security programmatically? How to quantify this "trend-friendliness"? Of course, I guess this is based on historical data and backtest...

2. Is there a way to decide for a security whether the current market environment (say the past a few days and the next a few days) is a non-trending or trending market?

Thanks a lot!

1. yes ...yes

2. yes

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from FlyingSoros:

Hi all,

I've read the heated discussion in the trend-following thread below and I have two questions:

1. Is there a way to judge the trend-friendliness of a security programmatically? How to quantify this "trend-friendliness"? Of course, I guess this is based on historical data and backtest...

2. Is there a way to decide for a security whether the current market environment (say the past a few days and the next a few days) is a non-trending or trending market?

Thanks a lot!

==============
FlySoros
1] Yes,but long story short, its like asking a medical Dr how to make money in medicine. Yes...

2]Yes;
study ALL the data you can find.Even if you do not trade/invest the DOW/DIA, go back 100+ years......

Bear markets & bull markets are not nearly the same;
see 200day ma defines them ,nicely/with discretion

Book of Proverbs[4000years old ]still helps;
Jack Schwager top trader books are still helpful in ANY market.

 

[drcha]

Quote from mizhael:

Trend is correlation?

Yeah, calculating correlation is easy...

but the OP is talking about trend-friendly or non trend-friendly...

Yes, trend could be thought of as correlation, or slope of a regression line. If the slope is nonzero, then you have a trend.

But as for the last part of the OP's question, nobody can read the future.