Two Questions For Practicing Day Traders
- Thread starter ironchef
- Start date
I never said you didn't post live trades, where did you read that ...?!
.Fact is you kept saying you where profitable while you weren't, a few winning trades don't make you profitable overall ..
Great, can't wait.
If you don't mind, I do a lot of "thinking out loud" on my posts, for the benefit of those new traders.
Yes, the first price chart was generated by my Excel VBA program using Geometric Brownian Motion algorithm (a Markov process). The second is this Friday's SPY price chart. I left out the open, high, low to keep things simple.
The Renaissance CEO's interview comments I posted elsewhere seemed to indicated they could make money by simply employed risk management, similar to what @Buy1Sell2 have been preaching for years.
Can the Markov stock be profitably traded? I ran a few tests using the traditional indicators like MA, MACD, RSI..... Some actually worked!
Then this week I ran a small sample Monte Carlo (~ 1000 runs). Profits disappeared.
Best regards,
Here's a couple of short articles on "random" numbers.
https://www.malwarebytes.com/blog/news/2013/09/in-computers-are-random-numbers-really-random
https://engineering.mit.edu/engage/ask-an-engineer/can-a-computer-generate-a-truly-random-number/
IMO, Renaissance CAN make money with only risk management.
What we don't know is how many "random" trades they need to turn a profit.
And does there need to be some degree of reasonableness to that number?
Is $1 profit reasonable?
Obviously, 2 sides (one entry and one exit) wouldn't count. lol.
Why, IMO it's likely they can do it, is that they have an infrastructure that will use
every element of every executed trade to build historic reference, where only "random" existed prior.
The historic reference is magnitudes more reliable for generating profitable trades. IMO.
Not going to hijack your thread.
Good trades to you.
https://www.malwarebytes.com/blog/news/2013/09/in-computers-are-random-numbers-really-random
https://engineering.mit.edu/engage/ask-an-engineer/can-a-computer-generate-a-truly-random-number/
IMO, Renaissance CAN make money with only risk management.
What we don't know is how many "random" trades they need to turn a profit.
And does there need to be some degree of reasonableness to that number?
Is $1 profit reasonable?
Obviously, 2 sides (one entry and one exit) wouldn't count. lol.
Why, IMO it's likely they can do it, is that they have an infrastructure that will use
every element of every executed trade to build historic reference, where only "random" existed prior.
The historic reference is magnitudes more reliable for generating profitable trades. IMO.
Not going to hijack your thread.
Good trades to you.
Everyone is welcome to hijack.
I myself have moved beyond my original two questions.
I enjoyed your posts and learned a lot from them.
Not if you are Renaissance Tech.Either there is a language barrier or i have no words for this ... Of course you have to try and predict future price movements to make money on it ... You can't make money on a price move that has already happened ... What happened happened and is gone, you can't go back in time to trade it
This is an anonymous forum, you really don't know.
I learned a long time ago that we cannot judge some posters from what they posted or claimed. Some like to troll, some novices pretend to be experts, sometimes experts pretend to be novices..... all fun and game.
Take care.
Once upon a time I worked with pseudo random number generators. I think Excel's random number generator generates a set of the same "random" numbers but the series is way beyond my 50,000 to 100,000 sample size.
I have not done any real technical work in decades, so my knowledge is ancient.
As I read your post, I remembered the Lotus-123 date bug that continues to exist in Excel even today. Ancient. LOL.
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When Lotus 1-2-3 was first released, the program assumed that the year 1900 was a leap year, even though it actually was not a leap year. This made it easier for the program to handle leap years and caused no harm to almost all date calculations in Lotus 1-2-3.
When Microsoft Multiplan and Microsoft Excel were released, they also assumed that 1900 was a leap year. This assumption allowed Microsoft Multiplan and Microsoft Excel to use the same serial date system used by Lotus 1-2-3 and provide greater compatibility with Lotus 1-2-3. Treating 1900 as a leap year also made it easier for users to move worksheets from one program to the other.
Although it is technically possible to correct this behavior so that current versions of Microsoft Excel do not assume that 1900 is a leap year, the disadvantages of doing so outweigh the advantages.
If this behavior were to be corrected, many problems would arise, including:
- Almost all dates in current Microsoft Excel worksheets and other documents would be decreased by one day. Correcting this shift would take considerable time and effort, especially in formulas that use dates.
- Some functions, such as the WEEKDAY function, would return different values; this might cause formulas in worksheets to work incorrectly.
- Correcting this behavior would break serial date compatibility between Microsoft Excel and other programs that use dates.
- The WEEKDAY function returns incorrect values for dates before March 1, 1900. Because most users do not use dates before March 1, 1900, this problem is rare.
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/office/troubleshoot/excel/wrongly-assumes-1900-is-leap-year
Trading the chart only.. I see setup long about
this is a 1 minute chart so i am guessing you are trading for small moves. just looking at the chart, seeing the price move and with no other market, etc context. I see a setup about 32 on the x axis where price breaks prior support with entry just above prior support and would exit on first or second pullback for a profit of 30-40 cents per share.
Another setup is about on the x axis where price reverses down at about 43 on the x axis. The entry would be on the first or second pullback up with another profit of 30-40 cents per share.
is that what you are looking for
toucan